Russian President Putin begins 2-day India visit on Thursday; PM Modi to host private dinner

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will host a private dinner for Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, hours after he lands in New Delhi with a broader goal to shore up bilateral strategic and economic partnership, against the backdrop of a sharp downturn in India's relations with the US.

Boosting defence ties, insulating bilateral trade from external pressure and exploring cooperation in small modular reactors are set to be the focus of the summit talks between Modi and Putin on Friday that are expected to be closely watched by Western capitals.

The Russian president is likely to arrive in New Delhi at around 4:30 pm on Thursday, and hours later, Modi will host him for a private dinner in reciprocation of a similar gesture extended to the Indian prime minister by the Russian leader during his visit to Moscow in July last year.

On Friday, Putin will be accorded a ceremonial welcome before the 23rd India-Russia summit. Modi will also host a working lunch for the Russian leader and his delegation at Hyderabad House, the venue for the summit. Putin will also visit Rajghat in the morning, according to people familiar with the matter.

After the summit, Putin is set to launch the new India channel of Russian state-run broadcaster, following which he will attend a state banquet to be hosted in his honour by President Droupadi Murmu.

The Russian leader is expected to leave India at around 9:30 pm on Friday, wrapping up his nearly 28-hour visit.

In the summit talks, New Delhi is expected to press for addressing the increasing trade deficit caused by India's procurement of large volumes of Russian crude oil.

The Russian president's trip to India is taking place at a time when India-US relations are going through possibly the worst phase in the last two decades after Washington imposed a whopping 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, including 25 per cent levies for New Delhi's procurement of Russian crude oil.

The impact of American sanctions on India's procurement of Russian crude oil is likely to be discussed at the summit. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday said New Delhi's purchase of crude oil from Russia may decline for "a brief period" in view of Western sanctions, but, at the same time, he said Moscow is taking steps to enhance the supplies.

At the summit, Putin is expected to apprise Modi about the latest US efforts to bring an end to the Ukraine conflict. India has been consistently maintaining that dialogue and diplomacy is the only way forward to end the war.

Following the Modi-Putin talks, the two sides are expected to ink a plethora of agreements, including one on facilitating the movement of Indian workers to Russia, and another on logistical support under a broader framework of defence cooperation.

It is learnt that under the trade basket, Indian exports to Russia are expected to significantly increase in areas of pharma, agriculture, food products and consumer goods.

The move comes amid concerns in New Delhi over a ballooning trade deficit in favour of Russia.

India's annual procurement of goods and services from Russia amounts to around USD 65 billion, while Russia's imports from India stand at around USD 5 billion. Officials said India is also looking at boosting cooperation in the fertiliser sector. Russia supplies three to four million tonnes of fertilisers to India annually.

The Indian and Russian sides are also likely to discuss New Delhi's proposed free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union.

Ahead of the summit, the defence ministers of the two countries will hold wide-ranging talks on Thursday that are likely to focus on India's plan to procure additional batches of S-400 missile systems and other critical military hardware from Russia.

The S-400 missile systems proved to be very effective during Operation Sindoor. Top military officials said the overall focus will be to further expand the already close defence and security ties between the two countries, with a particular focus on ensuring expeditious supply of military hardware from Russia to India.

In October 2018, India signed a USD 5 billion deal with Russia to buy five units of the S-400 air defence missile systems, notwithstanding a warning by the US that going ahead with the contract may invite US sanctions under the provisions of Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Peskov said there may be a discussion on the possibility of Russia supplying Su-57 fighter jets to India. India is in the process of procuring a batch of fifth-generation fighter jets.  Dassault Aviation's Rafale, Lockheed Martin's F-21, Boeing's F/A-18 and the Eurofighter Typhoon are the main contenders.

Ways to bolster bilateral energy ties are also expected to figure prominently in the summit.  It is learnt that Russia has offered India additional discounts for its procurement of crude oil.

The offer came after the volume of India's purchase of Russian crude oil registered a decline in the last few weeks following the latest wave of US sanctions on two Russian oil producers.

India and Russia have a mechanism under which India's prime minister and the Russian president hold a summit meeting annually to review the entire gamut of ties.  So far, 22 annual summit meetings have taken place alternatively in India and Russia. The Russian president had last visited New Delhi in 2021.

In July last year, PM Modi travelled to Moscow for the annual summit. Russia has been a time-tested partner for India and a key pillar of New Delhi's foreign policy.