Severe cyclone forming in Bay of Bengal to make landfall on Sunday night, red alert in West Bengal

After cyclone ‘Remal’ forms, it may turn northwards, gain more moisture and wind speeds and make a landfall as a ‘severe cyclone’ with wind speeds up to 120 kmph, gusting up to 130 kmph, as per IMD

Photo for representation only.

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, May 24

A depression in the Bay of Bengal is likely to concentrate into a severe cyclonic storm and make landfall between Sagar island in West Bengal and Khepupara in Bangladesh around May 26 midnight, bringing heavy rain in the coastal districts of the state, the Met department said on Friday.

This is the first cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this pre-monsoon season and will be named Remal, according to a system of naming cyclones in the Indian Ocean region.

The Met issued a red alert for West Bengal's coastal districts of South and North 24 Parganas district, warning of 100 to 110 km per hour wind speed on May 26 and 90 to 100 kmph on May 27, accompanied by extremely heavy rainfall at one or two places on both days.

An orange alert was issued for Kolkata, Howrah and Purba Medinipur districts by the Met, warning of 80 to 90 kmph wind speed on May 26 and 70 to 80 kmph wind speed on May 27, accompanied with heavy to very heavy rain at one or two places on the two days.

The depression, which lies over central Bay of Bengal, about 660 km south-southeast of Sagar island, is likely to concentrate into a cyclonic storm by May 25 morning, the Met said.

The weather office forecast heavy rain in Purba Medinipur on May 25, on which date elections are scheduled to be held in Tamluk and Kanti Lok Sabha constituencies located within the coastal district.

Moving in a northward direction, the system will further concentrate into a severe cyclonic storm by May 25 evening, the weather office said.

The severe cyclonic storm is very likely to cross West Bengal and Bangladesh coasts between Sagar island and Khepupara around midnight of May 26, it said.

The weather system will bring heavy to very heavy rain in South and North 24 Parganas, Purba Medinipur, Kolkata, Howrah and Hooghly districts of West Bengal on May 26 and May 27, the Met said.

Heavy rain is likely in the districts of Paschim Medinipur, Purba Bardhaman and Nadia on May 26 and 27, it said.

The weather office warned fishermen not to venture into the sea in north Bay of Bengal till May 27 morning.

Tracking Remal

Once it turns into a ‘cyclone’, Remal as it would then be called, would move nearly northwards and intensify into a ‘severe cyclonic storm’ by the night of May 25. Continuing to move nearly northwards, it is expected to cross Bangladesh and adjoining West Bengal coasts between Sagar Island and Khepupara around May 26 midnight as a ‘severe cyclonic storm’, said the IMD.

Remal will turn into a ‘severe cyclone’ by the morning of May 26.

The IMD is keeping the track, especially in mind an expected “unpredictable” characteristic that it may display on landfall. Experts say that the majority of tropical cyclones in most ocean basins have shown some unpredictable characteristics of late. According to The Weather Channel, forecast models have offered divergent predictions regarding Remal’s path and intensity.

Incidentally, the name ‘Remal’ (meaning sand in Arabic) has been given by Oman.

“If the current cyclonic circulation develops into a ‘cyclone’ it will then be officially named ‘Remal’, as per the WMO list. The IMD has not yet officially announced the name of the cyclone, which only happens after a cyclonic storm forms,” they add.

Polls and Remal

The West Bengal government is taking all precautions, especially keeping in mind the Phase-6 polls scheduled for Saturday. The Election Commission has cautioned district administrations to implement all necessary precautions at polling stations, say officials.

All national and international weather agencies and state administrations of Odisha, West Bengal, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura are on the alert for the next two days.

Tropical cyclone—stages

While intensifying, a tropical cyclone passes through various stages.

Starting off as a ‘well-marked low pressure area’, it may intensify if the situation is conducive enough to turn into a ‘depression’ and then into a ‘cyclone /deep depression’, ‘severe cyclone’, ‘very severe cyclone’ and ‘extremely severe cyclone’.

Weatherman says ocean and atmospheric conditions are favourable for the formation of the cyclone.

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the Bay have been warmer than usual for quite some time.

“Higher SSTs provide energy and moisture content, which are essential factors for the intensification. Many factors contribute to their formation, intensity and route, including greenhouse warming simulations and regional variability. Cyclones in different ocean basins are also affected by natural variations in regional atmospheric patterns. Though global warming is not the only factor at play, stronger cyclones over the years have made accusations of the human fingerprint stronger,” experts say.