Yellow avalanche warning was in place for Chamoli from Thursday to Friday

With rescue agencies racing against time to find 32 of 57 Border Roads Organisation workers missing after an avalanche hit the remote Mana village in Uttarakhand's Chamoli this afternoon, The Tribune has learnt that a yellow-level avalanche warning bulletin had been issued for this hilly district on Thursday evening.

DRDO's Defence Geoinformatics Research Establishment (DGRE), the organisation tasked with mapping, forecasting and mitigation of landslides and avalanches to ensure safe movement of troops, had at 5 pm on Thursday (February 27) issued the yellow alert. This bulletin, uploaded on the National Disaster Management Authority portal for access by relevant agencies, was for 24 hours -- 5 pm on February 27 to 5 PM on February 28.

So far as the levels of avalanche warnings go, there are five -- green level (means generally safe conditions where the valley movement is considered safe); yellow level (means partially unsafe conditions with careful movement across the valley and avoidance of movement on slopes); orange (means unsafe conditions with restricted movement across carefully selected routes); red level (a forecast for highly unsafe conditions calling for suspension of all movement and evacuation of settlements near the avalanche paths) and black level (extremely unsafe conditions mandating evacuation from all avalanche-prone areas).

Recent avalanches

Advertisement

April 2023: 7 killed in Sikkim

Feb 2023: 2 Polish skiers killed in Gulmarg

Feb 2021: 80 killed, 200 missing in Chamoli

April 2021: 11 died in Chamoli

Feb 2022: 7 soldiers died in Arunachal's Kameng sector

Oct 2022: 16 died at Draupadi ka Danda (Uttarakhand)

The DGRE's avalanche warning for Chamoli -- being yellow level -- forecast "possibilities of small size triggering of an avalanche on a few extreme slopes. Most importantly, the yellow bulletin carries an alert for all areas in the district that are over 2,400 metres above the sea level. In Chamoli's Mana, the starting point of the avalanche, as measured today, was -- 4,500 metres and the base point where the snow mass settled was 3,100 metres -- both above 2400 metre. Mana, three kilometres from Badrinath, is the last village on the India-Tibet border at 3,200 metres. 

It is currently unclear why the yellow warning bulletin went unheeded with sources saying: "A yellow alert advises caution but not complete suspension of movement or evacuation which is advised only if there is a risk level of red or black. An orange alert also calls for restricted movement on selected routes."

DGRE currently issues 24 hour avalanche warning bulletins (AWBs) for 27 districts in the Indian Himalayas across J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Sikkim. It is in the process of expanding the AWBs in Arunachal Pradesh. The exact location of the avalanche and its exact time is hard to predict, say scientists.

On the rising frequency of avalanches in the Indian Himalayas, DGRE studies have found that in the past 25 years, winters in the northwestern Himalayas are getting warmer and wetter (more rainfall) with less snowfall. "More rainfall and increasing temperatures lead to a greater frequency of landslides and avalanches," the studies say.

Avalanches are natural phenomena which cannot be prevented, each avalanche being a different case and complex to predict. Currently the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) provides the high resolution weather forecasts from their global, regional and ensemble prediction systems to DGRE on a daily basis. DGRE then uses this model output to drive their mountain weather model and Avalanche forecast model. Over 120 people have died in avalanches in the Himalayas since 2021.