Ludhiana West byelection: A fierce contest amid shifting political dominance

Over the past four decades, the Ludhiana West Assembly constituency has witnessed nine electoral contests, reflecting a dynamic and competitive political landscape. While several parties have claimed victories during the period, the Indian National Congress (INC) has emerged as the most successful, securing the seat on six occasions. However, the recent elections have seen a shift in voter preferences with the rise of new political contenders.

The West constituency came into being in 1977 and the first seat was won by Janata Party’s A Vishwanathan with 53.3 per cent votes. In 1980, the seat was won by Joginder Pal Pandey from the INC with 51.5 per cent votes.

INC candidate Harnam Das Johar managed to secure the seat in 1985 with 46.2 per cent votes and in 1992 with 45.4 per cent votes.

In 1997, Shiromani Akali Dal’s Maheshinder Grewal won the seat with a 55.2 per cent vote share followed by INC’s Harnam Das Johar again in 2002, who secured victory with a 52.9 per cent vote share. In 2007, SAD’s Harish Rai Dhanda managed to win the seat by bagging 57 per cent votes.

In 2012, Bharat Bhushan Ashu strengthened the INC’s position by winning the seat with an increased vote share of 62.8 per cent. However, in the 2017 elections, Ashu’s victory came with a slight dip in voter support, as he secured 54.4 per cent of the vote share but was still enough to maintain Congress’ stronghold in the constituency.

The Ludhiana West segment witnessed a significant shift in voter preference during the 2022 Assembly elections. Bharat Bhushan Ashu, who had previously maintained dominance, saw his vote share dropped drastically to 28.3 per cent. The Aam Aadmi Party candidate, Gurpreet Gogi, secured victory with 34.8 per cent of the vote share — a number that, while enough for a win, did not cross the halfway mark of the total votes cast.

With the seat now vacant following the untimely demise of Gogi, all eyes are on Ashu, who has been presented with a rare second chance to reclaim his position. The question remains — will he be able to bring the Congress back to power in Ludhiana West and secure what could have been his third electoral win?

“In the previous Assembly elections, a decisive shift in voter sentiments was seen and there was a wave against conventional political parties, which propelled the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to victory. Unlike a direct rejection of the Congress alone, the electorate expressed discontent with established political forces, which led to AAP winning with absolute majority. Now, after three years, people have seen the working of the AAP government and they now want a change,” said Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu.

With the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in power in the state, the party is making every effort to secure a win in the Ludhiana West byelection and aims to retain the seat left vacant after the demise of Gogi.

AAP candidate Sanjeev Arora, who is also the Rajya Sabha MP, is banking on his track record and development initiatives to secure public support.

“The Halwara international airport project, upgrade of the Civil Hospital and the ESI Hospital and the construction of four major bridges over the Sidhwan Canal are some of the works undertaken by me and I am confident that my work resonates with the people,” Arora said.

Despite Ludhiana West being a clear-cut urban constituency, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is yet to secure a victory here. The party has contested the past two Assembly elections independently, without an ally, but has struggled to break the dominance of rival parties in the region. In the 2002 Assembly elections, the BJP garnered 18.5 per cent of the vote share. By 2022, the party had managed to increase its vote share percentage to 24.2 per cent.