Can Karnataka stop Congress' free fall as BJP eyes a record

Aditi Tandon

New Delhi, March 29

While BJP eyes a record in the only southern state where it rules, the Congress will fight the May 10 Karnataka elections for electoral survival having lost 13 states elections since 2021 and won just one — Himachal Pradesh last year.

The ruling BJP, which has set a target of 150 seats in a 224 member assembly, is hoping to buck a 38 year old trend.

The last time a sitting government was re-elected in Karnataka was in 1985 (Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata Party returned to power).

The May 10 elections will be key to Congress resurrection besides being the test of public opinion. Karnataka is the first state to go to polls after Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification as Lok Sabha MP over defamatory remarks on Modis made in this very state’s Kolar in 2019; his London remarks on India’s alleged democratic decline and his unrelenting attack on industrialist Gautam Adani.

The grand old party has lost 13 polls since 2021 — Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, West Bengal (2021); UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, Gujarat (2022); Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya (2023).

On the other hand, it remains to be seen if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pitch against “family based parties” and “the corrupt have come together” will hold good in Karnataka, where the ruling BJP faces anti-incumbency.

Results of Karnataka polls will also set the tone for Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and MP elections where the Congress and BJP are pitted against one another, besides testing the BJP’s latest anti-OBC spin on Gandhi’s Kolar remarks: “How come all thieves have Modi surname.”

The spin is well crafted with Karnataka in mind as the state’s population has nearly 35 per cent OBCs.

The narrative also seeks to dent Congress’ AHINDA voter base (Dalits, Backward Classes, Kurubas and Muslims) while the BJP expands LIBRA (Lingayat, Brahmin) segments and adds more with its latest reservation grant to Lingayats and Vokkaligas, after scrapping a 4 per cent Muslim quota within the OBC reservation list.

If BJP’s anti-OBC narrative against Gandhi works, it hopes to woo 35 per cent OBCs in Karnataka which has 17 per cent Lingayats; 15 per cent Vokkaligas, 18 per cent SCs/STs, 12.92 per cent Muslims and about 3 per cent Brahmins.

The Congress, meanwhile, is hammering corruption under CM Basvaraj Bommai with the party conscious of maintaining a balance between the factions led by ex-CM Siddharamaiah and Vokkaliga strongman and state chief DK Shivakumar.

It is, meanwhile, learnt that Rahul Gandhi may kickstart his campaign from Kolar, where he made his now controversial defamatory remarks that landed him a two year jail term from a Surat court.

The BJP will bank on PM’s popularity and double engine growth promise to ensure 2018 is not repeated when it won 104 seats, nine short of majority.

The Congress with 78 seats and JDS with 37 had formed a coalition government in 2019 until some defections to the BJP led to the installation of a saffron government under BS Yediyurappa in 2019.

Currently BJP commands 25 of the state’s 28 Lok Sabha seats. The elections will also test JDS’ role as king maker.