EXPLAINER: Mission opposition unity 2024, what are the possibilities?

Vibha Sharma

Chandigarh, April 24

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his deputy, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, on Monday arrived in Kolkata for a closed door meeting with West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, according to reports.

The agenda of the meeting was to discuss strategies to take on the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the General Election, next year.

Apart from the discussion around the contours/plans of a united opposition, a ‘gathbandhan’ of sorts, apparently another key point was also whether there should be a common face to take on PM Modi —  the BJP’s biggest political asset—and whether the Congress should be a part of any such arrangement.   

Banerjee is said to be not in favour of taking on board the Congress.

She appears to be keen to uniting regional forces.

In the past few weeks, she has held discussions with important regional leaders like Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik (BJD), Janata Dal (S) leader HD Kumaraswamy and Tamil Nadu MK Stalin to discuss the possibility.

During her meeting with Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, the two leaders are said to have agreed on maintaining distance from the Congress and focus on uniting regional forces —broadly a united non-BJP, non-Congress arrangement.

PM Modi versus who?

Many observers believe the only way to take on the BJP juggernaut is to combine all forces against it.

However, just like Banerjee (Trinamool Congress) and Akhilesh Yadav(S)), Delhi Chief Minister Arvind-Kejriwal (AAP) and Telangana Chief Minister KCR (Bharat Rashtra Samithi) are also seemingly not in the favour of taking the Congress on board of a nation-wide alliance.

Sources said during their recent meeting with Nitish Kumar and later Sharad Pawar, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and senior leader Rahul Gandhi had urged them to initiate dialogue with parties “not too comfortable/ keen” with the idea of the grand old party becoming a part of the non-BJP blueprint.

Nitish Kumar also held meetings with Kejriwal, left party leaders D Raja and Sitaram Yechury during Delhi visit with Tejashwi Yadav.

Ways to take on BJP

Observers believe there can be more than one way to take on the BJP in 2024.

One is a non-BJP, non-Congress arrangement which Banerjee appears to be in favour of.

Then there is the UPA model with the Congress as the fulcrum.

Stalin’s DMK, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, Left parties and Lalu Prasad’s RJD are said to be in favour of taking the Congress along.

Their argument is that a strong attack against the BJP cannot be launched without the Congress as even in the worst circumstances like for example the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, it did manage to score more than 19 per cent vote share.

The third point of view is that parties should be allowed to fight the BJP in their respective areas of influence/dominance to avoid any division of anti-BJP votes.

For example the TMC can use the complete opposition space in West Bengal, the RJD-JD (U) in Bihar and neighbourhood, the DMK in Tamil Nadu/Puducherry, AAP in Delhi and Punjab, the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, the BRS in Telangana and so on.

Likewise, the Congress should be allowed to engage the BJP one-on-one in its areas of influence like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh. 

This type of arrangement can be through mutual understanding by regional satraps/state level and the remaining can be decided after the results.   

The main aim is to ensure that anti-BJP votes are not divided in its favour.

However, the sticking point—who will be the face against PM Modi—will remain in any such arrangement, the advantage of which the BJP is bound to take.