Monsoon rain 7 pc excess so far, more expected in last two weeks of September

Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 7

The Southwest Monsoon is running 7 per cent in excess, the IMD on Monday said, adding that all regions with the exception of some parts of Northwest India are currently in the green.

Even the Northwest is in the red primarily because of deficit in two subdivisions there, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh and Western Uttar Pradesh, IMD Director General Mritunjaya Mohapatra said speaking on the current status of Southwest Monsoon and future prospects in the remaining of the June-September season.

Incidentally the reason NW (which is currently 10 per cent in deficit) received lesser rains as compared to say Central, Western or Southern parts of the country is because majority of low pressure areas this season moved towards Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, bringing excess rains in those parts.

Incidentally, the country has so far seen six low pressure areas (another one is expected around September 17) and five of them have been in August, the month that also received maximum rain. In fact, August saw 27 LPA days. The normal number of low pressure areas in the four month season is 13 to 14 (with 13.5 being the average) and number of LPA days 55.

So far as Punjab and Haryana are concerned, they were deficit but had now made up for the shortfall, according to Mohapatra.

The seasonal rains are expected to begin the retreat process around September 15 with some signs appearing in Western Rajasthan but a fresh LPA around September 17 will bring more rains to Central and Southern parts of India in the last two weeks the month.

“LPA is the key during monsoon days to determine rains, especially in Central and adjoining areas that is reason why August recorded excess and July less rains,” explains Mohapatra.

Meanwhile according to Secretary, Earth Sciences, good rain should help Indian economy and agriculture.  With major cities experiencing more rains and incidents of urban floods, the IMD has also planning to extend warning systems installed in Mumbai and Chennai to more parts.

This year the Monsoon set over Indian mainland on June 1 and covered the entire country two weeks in advance on June 26 in “one go or spell with no hiatus”. Currently, 33 of the 36 subdivisions in the country are either normal or excess due to favourable ENSO conditions offsetting the negative effect of IOD.