Next five years to be hottest ever, forecasts WMO

Karam Prakash

New Delhi, May 17

The global temperatures — apparently owing to the climate change — are likely to surge to a record high in the next five years. This will be caused due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Nino event, says the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C, which is higher than the 1850-1900 average.

El Nino effect

• The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C, which is higher than the 1850-1900 average
• This will be caused due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Nino event

“There is 66 per cent likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” said the WMO in a statement.

Prof Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, WMO, said the global temperature would breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. However, it would not permanently exceed the 1.5°C level, specified in the Paris Agreement.

“El Nino is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into an uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof Taalas.

The WMO further stated that chances of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C temperature has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, the WMO said there was a 10 per cent chance global temperature would breach the 1.5°C level.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to increase, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report.