Karnataka poll results: 'Vocal for local' trumps BJP's national pitch

Aditi Tandon

New Delhi, May 13

As the BJP lost a second state after Himachal Pradesh in a direct fight with the Congress, party sources were abuzz with acknowledgments of things gone wrong in Karnataka.

Anti-incumbency, absence of Lingayat stalwart BS Yediyurappa, misgovernance, lack of CM Bommai’s acceptance among cadres, rebels and finally a haphazard campaign were among the factors that emerged as the BJP settled at 65 seats, posting massive losses over 2018 when it bagged 104 seats to become the single largest party.

Saffron party leaders privately admitted that Yediyurappa’s presence (he was dropped as CM last year) would have safeguarded BJP’s Lingayat base and prevented such a drastic seat reduction.

The Congress bagged 42 of the 67 Lingayat seats besides a majority of SC/ST and Vokkaliga segments, breaching both

BJP and JD (S) bastions and managing Muslim consolidation with its “Bajrang Dal ban pledge.”

A major worry for the BJP would be losses of SC and ST seats in Karnataka. Of the 36 SC segments, the Congress won 21, gaining nine, while the BJP got 12, losing four. The Congress won most of the state’s 15 ST seats — a massive dent to the PM Modi’s tribal push.

It was evident that the Congress managed to hyper localise the Karnataka campaign, successfully thwarting BJP’s attempts to polarise elections and woo voters with BJP’s “double engine” appeal and mentions of India’s rising global profile.

While Bommai said the party would “introspect, reorganise, go back to the people and return in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls”, other top saffron party leaders rushed to challenge Congress assertions that the results mean a step closer to a win in the General Election.

“Today’s results will have no bearing on the 2024 elections. We won 25 seats in 2019 and we will again work to retain these seats and make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister,” four-time ex-Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa said after Congress CM hopeful Siddaramaiah termed the verdict as a precursor to 2024.

While Congress MLAs are all set to choose the CLP leader on Sunday evening after offering prayers at Mysuru’s Chamundeshwari Temple, the BJP is mulling organisational reshuffle to energise the cadre in time for the LS polls. 

A loss in Karnataka is significant as Karnataka is the biggest state (in terms of Assembly’s size) the Congress has won comfortably since Modi stormed to power at the Centre in 2014. The Congress won Chhattisgarh in 2018 and barely won Rajasthan and MP that same year.

With today’s loss, BJP’s southern inroads have suffered a setback. The party would need to return to the drawing board to see why its Hindutva narratives — hijab row, Tipu Sultan controversy, Bajrangbali pitch, scrapping of Muslim reservation — failed in Karnataka and how to address Congress’ newly discovered “vocal for local” election campaign as seen in Karnataka and before that in Himachal. For now, the BJP can take heart from the fact that Karnataka votes differently in state and national elections.

The BJP won big in Karnataka in the 2014 LS polls even though the Congress bagged a majority in the state in 2013. Likewise, though the JD(S) and Congress formed a coalition government in Karnataka in 2018 and were allies during the 2019 LS polls, the BJP won 25 of the state’s 28 parliamentary segments.