Monsoon retreat stalled from Punjab, Haryana

After retreating from the southwestern tips of Punjab and Haryana on September 15, the withdrawal of monsoon from the region appears to have stalled, with no further progress being witnessed since then.

“The line of withdrawal of southwest monsoon continues to pass through Bathinda, Fatehabad, Pilani, Ajmer, Deesa and Bhuj,” a bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on September 21 states.

This is the same position as that on September 15, the day monsoon commenced its withdrawal from Punjab and Haryana. Normally, the monsoon should have withdrawn from half the state of Punjab by September 20, with complete withdrawal from Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh by September 25.

While light to moderate rain along with thunder and lightning occurred at isolated places in Punjab during the past 24 hours, the weather is likely to be dry in the state, with no rain expected till September 27. Light rain is, however, expected in a few parts of Himachal Pradesh and several parts of neighbouring Uttarakhand to its east till September 27.

The IMD said on Sunday that conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some more parts of Haryana and Punjab and from some parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days.

According to weather experts, a western disturbance in middle tropospheric westerlies is prevailing at an altitude of 5.8 km above mean sea level and an upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood is lying at a height of 1.5 km. These systems keep humidity level high and prevent the establishment of dry, high-pressure conditions needed for the withdrawal.

The monsoon in Punjab has been significantly above normal this year, with heavy rains and floods being experienced in many parts of the region along with unprecedented inflows into crucial dams.

From June 1 till the morning of September 21, Punjab received 621.7 mm rain compared to the long period average of 439.2 mm for this period, accounting for a surplus of 48 per cent. In the neighbouring states of Himachal Pradesh and Haryana, the monsoon has been surplus by 45 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, according to IMD data.

In 2024, monsoon was deficient in Punjab by 28 per cent, with the total rainfall recorded during the entire season being 314.6 mm. Last year, the withdrawal from the state was complete by October 2, about a week behind schedule.