Bihar exit polls predict big win for NDA, Jan Suraaj makes no impact

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears headed for a convincing return to power in Bihar, all exit polls indicated on Tuesday. The real verdict will come when votes are counted on November 14.

Projections suggested a clear and decisive edge for the BJP, JD(U), LJP, HAM and RLM combine over the opposition RJD, Congress, Left and VIP Mahagathbandhan (MGB).The average of nine exit polls showed the NDA crossing the halfway mark (122) comfortably with 148 seats in the 243-member Assembly and the grand alliance trailing at 88 seats. The remaining seven seats are expected to be shared among smaller parties, including Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP).

Kishor’s fledgling outfit looks set for an unimpressive debut, as per pollsters, with most estimating a duck for the party led by former election strategist.

If the exit poll numbers hold, the results will not only reaffirm the NDA’s political dominance but also mark a strong comeback for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the JD(U), who is widely seen to be contesting his final electoral battle after nearly two decades in office.

The exit polls predict a grim result for the Congress, which may shrink further, as Rahul Gandhi’s “vote theft” campaign appears to have made little or no impact on the ground.

Among the major pollsters, Dainik Bhaskar projected the NDA to win between 145 and 160 seats, while Matrize-IANS gave the alliance a slightly higher range of 147 to 167. Times Now-JVC placed it between 135 and 150, while People’s Pulse-NDTV pegged the ruling combine at 133 to 159. Chanakya Strategies, P-Marq and TIF Research also placed the NDA well above the majority mark.

For the opposition, the projections paint a bleak picture. The MGB is seen struggling to reach even the 100-seat mark. Dainik Bhaskar predicted between 73 and 91 seats, JVC placed it between 88 and 103, while Matrize predicted 70 to 90. Both the RJD and the Congress are expected to perform worse than in 2020. The RJD’s estimated tally has fallen to between 57 and 69 seats, while the Congress may end up with only 11 to 14, a sharp drop from the 19 it won last time.

The biggest disappointment appears to be the Jan Suraaj Party, led by election strategist-turned-politician Kishor. Despite the buzz around his debut, exit polls suggest the JSP would barely open its account, winning anywhere between zero and five seats. Some analysts, however, believe the fledgling party may have split a small but crucial share of the opposition vote, inadvertently benefitting the NDA.

Within the ruling alliance, the numbers suggest a shift in internal equations. The BJP, which had won 74 seats in 2020, is projected to win between 67 and 70 this time, while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is expected to rebound from its previous tally of 43 to as many as 71 seats. Together, they are comfortably above the 122-seat majority mark.

The election outcome, observers say, could signal the end of an era in Bihar politics, with Nitish Kumar likely to exit on a high note, while Tejashwi Yadav faces the challenge of rebuilding a diminished opposition space. Yet, as history often reminds, Bihar’s exit polls have been wrong before.