TARIFF TUSSLE: US agri exports to China plummet as tariffs soar

How important is agriculture to the US-China relationship?

China announced it would hike planned tariffs on US imports to 84%, matching President Donald Trump's latest duties on the country as relations between the two superpowers sinks to a new low. This new levy adds to the 10-15% tariffs China imposed in early March on approximately $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products, threatening to nearly sever the tens of billions in agricultural trade between the two nations.

A summary of that trade:

‘IRREPLACEABLE’ MARKET

US agricultural exports to China declined sharply during the first trade war after Beijing slapped tariffs of up to 25% on soybeans, beef, pork, wheat, corn and sorghum in retaliation for duties on Chinese goods imposed by Trump.

Beijing has diversified its agricultural imports since then, ramping up purchases from suppliers led by Brazil, and boosting domestic production in pursuit of greater food security.

As a result, China is now wielding the billions it still spends each year on US agricultural products as a weapon in the escalating trade war with less risk to its own food security.

China remains the largest export market for American farmers. US farm leaders and traders have described China as “irreplaceable” even as they look for alternative markets.

China imported $29.25 billion worth of US agricultural products in 2024, a 14% decline from the previous year, extending a 20% drop in 2023.

SOYBEAN

About half of US soybeans, the country's largest agricultural export to China, were shipped to the Asian nation in 2024, totaling $12.8 billion in trade, according to US data. However, China has increasingly relied on cheaper and abundant Brazilian soybeans to reduce its dependence on US supplies. This has resulted in the US market share in China dropping to 21% in 2024 from 40% in 2016, according to Chinese customs data.

CORN

The US was China's dominant corn supplier for decades until Beijing approved Brazilian purchases in 2022. China's imports of US corn fell to $561 million in 2024 from $2.6 billion a year earlier as domestic production increased, according to Chinese customs data. While China's corn demand has grown over the past decade to support its massive livestock industry, Brazil has rapidly surpassed the US as China's leading supplier.

MEAT AND OFFAL

China is a key market for US exports of chicken legs, pork ears and offal - products for which there is little demand in the United States. China bought $2.54 billion of meat and offal from the US in 2024, down from $4.11 billion in 2021. Hundreds of US meat exporters were thrown into administrative limbo earlier this year when China allowed their export registrations to lapse. While some were subsequently re-registered, many beef exporters are still without licenses.

COTTON

China accounts for about a quarter of US cotton shipments in value. Shipments of US cotton into the world's second largest economy stood at $1.49 billion in 2024, down from $1.57 billion in 2023, according to US Census Bureau data, as economic headwinds squeezed demand for textiles and garments.

SORGHUM

China's imports of US sorghum have risen slightly but the country is trying to reduce its dependence on the American feed grain which is mostly used as a corn substitute. China imported $1.73 billion worth of sorghum from the US in 2024, up from $1.52 billion in 2014. US sorghum exports to China are facing stiff competition from Australia and Argentina as well as cheaper Brazilian corn.

WHEAT

China imported nearly $600 million worth of U.S. wheat in 2024, the highest in three years. But China has reduced overall wheat imports in recent months amid ample local supplies which is likely to impact US shipments.