After intense political turmoil, Bangladesh banking on polls to turn over a new leaf

It’s been an eventful week for poll-bound Bangladesh, which looks keen on reviving democracy at long last.

On Monday, the country’s International Crimes Tribunal declared ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina guilty of “crimes against humanity” and sentenced her to death. Amid the political and geopolitical tremors caused by this verdict — she has been living in exile in India since August last year — this small nation got a grim reminder of its vulnerability to natural disasters.

Dhaka and some other places were rocked by a 5.7-magnitude earthquake, which claimed 10 lives. The tragedy cast a shadow on the commemoration of the Armed Forces Day on November 21, which marks the formation of Bangladesh’s army, navy and air force during the 1971 Liberation War.

Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has called upon the armed forces to ensure a “smooth and festive” election, slated for February, describing it as a crucial chapter in Bangladesh’s democratic transition.

As far as Track 2 is concerned, the three-day Bay of Bengal Conversation aims to tell the world that the country is ready to make a fresh start, building on the July 2024 uprising. This forum, which has brought together diplomats, researchers, scholars and journalists from 85 countries, is being hosted by the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS), a premier think tank based in Dhaka. Its emphasis is on replacing confrontation with conversation.

That’s what is direly needed to rebuild ties between Bangladesh and India, two neighbours which share historically strong bonds and have economic heft in South Asia.

Zillur Rahman, President of the CGS, admits that the issue of Hasina’s extradition has done some damage to the relationship. But he is hopeful that once an elected government takes charge in Dhaka, sustained efforts will be made to break the deadlock.

Confrontation is not a wise course in the long run, and it is in their common interest to engage fruitfully and meaningfully with each other, he adds.

According to Mahfuz Anam, editor and publisher of The Daily Star, Bangladesh’s leading English daily, “India is not being able to gauge and accept the changeover in Bangladesh and the prevailing sentiment in the country. Around 1,400 protesters were killed in a matter of six weeks during the ruthless crackdown that included firing from helicopters. Many others were blinded, maimed and disabled. They are now in hospitals. Hasina’s dictatorial rule was also marked by large-scale electoral malpractices, corruption and money laundering. The extrajudicial killings and forced disappearances constituted the dirtiest of her actions and severe violation of fundamental rights. How can Bangladeshi people forget and forgive all that?”

Anam thinks that Pakistani overtures are an attempt to fill the vacuum created by the Delhi-Dhaka impasse.

“During Hasina’s rule, relations with Pakistan were sidelined to an absurd extent. After all, as part of South Asia — even with Pakistan’s role in 1971 — we must have some level of diplomatic relationship.”

Debapriya Bhattacharya, an economist and distinguished fellow, Centre for Policy Dialogue, Dhaka, says that reforms hold the key to Bangladesh’s renaissance. In his view, it is a continuous process of course correction at every step, with no room for complacency.

Meanwhile, former PM Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has taken the lead by announcing candidates on more than two-thirds of the seats.

With Hasina’s Awami League virtually out of the race due to suspension of its activities, the Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a major rival of the BNP, its long-time ally.

The student-centric National Citizen Party, which was formed barely nine months ago, has little option but to tie up with one big player or another. All said and done, the challenge for “Naya Bangladesh” is to conduct free, fair and inclusive elections — something that has not happened for more than a decade and a half.