Gaza war death toll could be 40% higher, says study

An official Palestinian tally of direct deaths in the Israel-Hamas war likely undercounted the number of casualties by around 40% in the first nine months of the war as the Gaza Strip’s healthcare infrastructure unravelled, according to a study published on Thursday.

The peer-reviewed statistical analysis published in The Lancet journal was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions.

Using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis, the researchers sought to assess the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024.

They estimated 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during this period, about 41% higher than the official Palestinian Health Ministry count. The study said 59.1% were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate of Palestinian combatants among the dead.

More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Gaza war, according to Palestinian health officials, from a pre-war population of around 2.3 million.

A senior Israeli official, commenting on the study, said Israel’s armed forces went to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties.

“No other army in the world has ever taken such wide-ranging measures,” the official said. “These include providing advance warning to civilians to evacuate, safe zones and taking any and all measures to prevent harm to civilians. The figures provided in this report do not reflect the situation on the ground,” he added.

The war began on October 7 after Hamas gunmen stormed across the border with Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages.