A democratic govt has to return in J&K, early
AS Dulat
Koi umeed bar nahin aati,
Koi surat nazar nahin aati…
Hai kuchh aisi hi baat jo chup hoon,
varna kya baat kar nahin aati…
Hum waha hain jahan se hum ko bhi,
kuchh hamari khabar nahi aati…
— Ghalib
Jammu has been agog with anticipation of government formation since the meeting between Ram Madhav and Mehbooba Mufti in Srinagar on February 17. PDP supporters, in general, and former ministers and hopefuls among legislators with a vested interest, in particular, appear excited at the prospect of the revival of the democratic process. But how; what new mantra or balm could Ram Madhav have carried to Srinagar to awaken Mehbooba from her reverie?
The ‘Bub Jihad’ (Syed Ali Shah Geelani), hitherto supportive of the PDP, has also, because of his anxiety about the possibility of government formation, been extremely critical of the PDP, for its silence on JNU when every other party has come out in support of the students there. But Geelani Saheb need have no worry. Mehbooba is so entwined in her web of dilemmas that it is not easy for her to extricate herself. Each passing day only makes it that much more difficult.
All manner of suggestions have been in the air for Mehbooba to find a way ahead. Somebody from the PDP suggested that if Prime Minister Narendra Modi could conjure the visit to Lahore, why could he not do something equally magical for J&K? But from PDP accounts, the Prime Minister has not yet applied his mind to Kashmir. Maybe the PDP delegation led by Haseeb Drabu will evoke some reaction from Delhi. Drabu and Ram Madhav were after all the architects of the PDP-BJP ‘alliance’. Drabu has also reportedly met Amit Shah and Arun Jaitely. But who knows whether Drabu has come to Delhi on his own initiative or at Mehbooba’s behest? And would the PDP be satisfied with Srinagar being included in the list of ‘smart cities’, a demand already voiced by Omar Abdullah. On Delhi’s part the only assurance for the present is that the BJP would not deviate from the agenda of alliance which in PDP perception, in the end, consumed Mufti Mohammed Sayeed.
How will the gulf between Srinagar, Jammu and Delhi be bridged? As of now, even Jammu and Srinagar appear to be in different orbits rather than part of the same state: There have been simultaneous banners of “thank you, JNU,” in Srinagar and “with you, BJP,” in Jammu.
The PDP, too, is divided down the middle, with the party on one side demanding its pound of flesh before compromising and the legislators on the other frustrated at being within sniffing distance of the Secretariat but not quite there. What everyone agrees on is that Mehbooba is dithering, and deliberately so, at being ‘aggrieved’. As a senior PDP leader says, “If the partnership with the Congress was a comedy of errors, the relationship with the BJP has been a tragedy.” Delhi needs to go deeper into the psyche of a woman orphaned, for whom her beloved father was God. If and when Delhi fathoms the depth, the alliance could be back on track without concessions necessarily on AFSPA or hydel projects.
Mehbooba has not discussed government formation with any party leader in the past 45 days; neither has she uttered a word to anyone outside the family. For the present her only confidants appear to be her brother, Tassaduq, and her maternal uncle, Sartaj Madni. This too is worrisome for the party because no one has any inkling of her thinking; partymen and legislators are alike, clueless. So with whose mandate and at whose bidding has Drabu come to Delhi?
If Mehbooba is running out of options and is in a no-win situation, Pakistan, which currently appears to be more on people’s mind in Delhi, is in a win-win situation in Kashmir. Little wonder then that the Valley is on the boil again. Encounters in which boys from neighbouring villages are not afraid to come out in support of militants and in which security forces are suffering serious causalities are on the increase. If in the 1990s the ratio of foreign to indigenous militants was 80:20, it now seems to be the reverse. Whereas militants south of the Pir Panjal are mostly Pakistanis, in the Valley there is increasing local involvement, which should be a matter of concern. Pockets in South Kashmir appear to be out of the control of security forces. Burhan Wani, who has become something of a legend, roams free in Tral, which is where most of the Kashmiri Sikhs come from, despite a reward of Rs 20 lakh on his head. And Pulwama, always a trouble spot and a Jamaat stronghold, is fast becoming a hot bed of secessionist uprising. The Srinagar-Jammu highway is said to be closed for the past four days not because of militants but stone-pelters. The Cassandras are out predicting a return to 1989.
Political uncertainty gripping the state at present could be worse than increased militancy. As of now, the state appears to be in for a long spell of Governor’s rule, during which every wrong will be attributed directly to Delhi. It took Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s vision and considerable effort to revive the political process in 1996. We should ensure at all costs that we do not slip back into the same abyss.
Yet, if perchance the PDP and BJP patched up and formed a government, the question would be how long would it last? Most political analysts would not give it more than six months. It is time for the leadership both in Delhi and J&K to work together and focus on the sensitive state rather than their own predispositions.
The writer is former chief of RAW
