China keeps the pot boiling

CHINA sees in India’s rise a distant challenge. Whilst it is keen to develop economic and trade relations, its approach in security matters is not exactly the same. Although it watches India’s progress keenly, it doesn’t find it expedient to cultivate it yet. China’s spectacular growth is largely responsible for its aggressive posture. The contentious issues are held in abeyance indefinitely, waiting for the future to become more assuring. Despite 34 long years and innumerable meetings between political representatives of the two countries, little has been achieved. Refusing to clarify the LAC as it perceives is part of this very strategy.  India is invariably led into inane border negotiations without touching the centrality of the issue. This wearisome process only adds to India’s discomfiture further.

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During his recent visit to Beijing, Prime Minister Modi was unusually forthright in impressing upon the Chinese leadership the need for resolving the border issue. But like a good host, they heard him in silence. China has simply ignored Modi’s preference and preferred to keep the pot boiling.

China doesn’t seem to follow any logic or rule of law where its self-interest is concerned. Whilst it accepted the McMahon Line with Myanmar in 1960, albeit without mentioning it so, it refuses to apply the same principle to India. Not only that, as the time goes by, its claims on Indian territory tend to increase. Similarly, it also claims almost the entire South China Sea in violation of other nations’ rights.  

At $17.6 trillion last year, the Chinese economy is the world’s largest, according to the IMF. China has huge foreign exchange reserves. It is this economic prowess that China flaunts in meeting its strategic ends. The Chinese plan to build a $45 billion China-Pakistan economic corridor, besides IT and infrastructure projects in Nepal, the Maldives, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. These reflect its economic dominance in India’s neighbourhood. Not only that, China has rejected outright India’s protests against the corridor running through territories claimed by India. China has, in fact, simply ignored India’s concerns. 

 Lately, China has been showing a lot of interest in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). It is fast emerging as a true maritime power that raises the possibilities of conflict of interest in the Indian Ocean. It will soon begin to affect India’s regional maritime influence. The Chinese navy has been visiting ports regularly in the IOR with its conventional and nuclear submarines. Its warships have been spotted on long deployment just off India’s coast. China has been building its assets in the IOR for some time now, in keeping with its strategic machinations.

Chinese submarines have been spotted in this region a number of times since last year. A Chinese submarine docked at the Karachi harbour on May 22, where it stayed for a week. It came as a surprise to the Government of India. It was a visit about which New Delhi had no inkling whatsoever till revealed by the media. Such forays in India’s neighbourhood and far away from Chinese waters are suggestive of China’s attempts to carve out a major role for itself in the region. The movement of nuclear and non-nuclear vessels, including submarines, is worrisome for India.

At present, India is hardly in a position to assert itself beyond the Arabian Sea to the Suez Canal in the west and the Bay of Bengal to the Strait of Malacca in the east. Even here, the Indian Navy does not have a long-term blockade capability. Whereas China and Pakistan together can interdict oil and gas supplies to India from the Persian Gulf. That is where the strategic importance of Gwadar and Chabahar sea ports lies, respectively, for both sides. 

China’s presence in the Indian Ocean for safeguarding its energy and trade interests is understandable to an extent, but under-sea mining operations in the Indian Ocean, where it has no territorial claims, is a matter of concern. In order to ensure some legitimacy, China has invited India to collaborate with it in deep-sea mining. Even then, the project has a great conflict potential.

China also claims almost the entire South China Sea, ignoring the rights of Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, etc. It has adopted an aggressive posture and denies all other powers even the right to navigate through it. It also objects to the India-Vietnam collaboration for oil exploration in the South China Sea. India must not lose time in developing its maritime potential. Andaman and Nicobar Islands can be an important strategic outpost to counter Chinese ingress.

China is now eyeing to rope in Iran also. The revitalised and sanction-free Iran can play a crucial role in this region. India must act fast and secure its flanks from Chinese aggression. China’s continued efforts to penetrate India’s areas of influence in South Asia will only put India under greater pressure. Luckily for India, on the sidelines of the recent summit in Russia, President Hassan Rouhani of Iran offered Prime Minister Modi infrastructure investment worth $8 billion. India must not let go of this opportunity, as it happened in the case of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. India’s indecisiveness allowed the Chinese to enter the fray and walk away with the project. India and Iran are already working on the development of strategically important Chabahar, 70 km from Gwadar. It seems the government has not yet responded to the offer, despite its multifarious strategic advantages. It will open up an access to landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia, besides helping circumvent Pakistan. 

China’s dual policy of friendship and confrontation keeps India off-balance. During Modi’s visit to China in May, the joint statement clearly stated for the first time that “it had taken note” of India’s aspiration to join the 48 countries’ elite Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). President Xi was rather ambivalent when Prime Minister Modi broached the subject again during their 90-minute meeting at Ufa. It is not easy to trust China, even though it continues to profess its theme of “peace and development”.

How does a major country like India cope with the arrogance of a superior power like China? Confrontation is not the answer. Reaching out to the neighbours and developing strategic relations with powers that matter are obvious options. Australia and Japan, with similar concerns about China, are well-disposed towards India. The US also continues its efforts to draw India into a close relationship.  The defence framework signed between India and the US, during the recent visit of Defence Secretary Ashton Carter in New Delhi, is an important step in this direction. The US military might coupled with the burgeoning economies of South East Asia and India can counter the Chinese aggressive profile. Besides, India must continue to build its military potential for a viable defence posture. 

 — The writer is a former Director General, Defence Planning Staff