Miracle moment in Koreas?

Sharat Sabharwal

Former High Commissioner

The April 27 inter-Korean summit between Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in has been billed as the dawn of a new era in the Korean peninsula. The much-demonised Kim Jong-un talking peace and cracking jokes gave it the veneer of a miracle moment, pregnant with possibilities ranging from a formal end to the Korean war to the denuclearisation of the peninsula and some form of reunification of the two Koreas. The event assumed an added significance in the backdrop of US President Donald Trump's willingness to hold a summit with Kim Jong-un, expected to take place in late May-early June. There is already talk of a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump.

The euphoria surrounding the inter-Korean summit is reminiscent of the day (February 20, 1999) when former Prime Minister Vajpayee and his delegation crossed over to Pakistan side at the Attari-Wagah border. Present at the venue as the Deputy High Commissioner of India to Pakistan, I saw TV crews from across the globe covering the event, describing it as the dawn of a new era. However, the bold move of Vajpayee fell victim, within months, to the reality of the institutional interest of the Pakistani army to maintain an adversarial relationship with India, when the Kargil incursion came to light.

The joint statement issued following the inter-Korean summit commits the two sides to, inter alia, establish a joint liaison office to facilitate consultations, cease all hostile acts against each other and hold frequent meetings between military authorities, including defence ministers. 

They also committed to actively pursue trilateral meetings involving the two Koreas and the United States or quadrilateral meetings involving China also, with a view to declaring an end to the Korean war. They confirmed the "common goal of realising, through complete denuclearisation, a nuclear-free Korean peninsula" and declared that the measures being initiated by North Korea in this respect "are very meaningful and crucial" and the two sides would "carry out their respective roles and responsibilities in this regard."

The joint statement is long on commitments, but short on details. Significantly, most of the themes covered in it were also contained in the statement issued in October 2007 following the meeting between the then South Korean President, Roh Moo-hyun, and Kim Jong-un's father Kim Jong-il, which failed to bring peace to the peninsula. 

What to expect from the bonhomie?

The parties involved have different aims.

1 Kim Jong-un seeks relief from economic sanctions and an end to the US threat to his regime, while retaining his nuclear and missile capability. In seeking an opening to the US, he also possibly aims to reduce his dependence on China. 

2 President Moon Jae-in seeks to validate his election promise of pursuing a conciliatory approach towards North Korea by demonstrating that it pays peace dividends. He is also keen to ward off a military strike by the US against North Korea that had become likely because of Trump's hard line against the North Korean provocations. After all, such a strike would entail immense damage to South Korea also. 

3 America has been seeking complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of nuclear weapons by North Korea before rewarding them with easing of sanctions. More importantly, President Trump seeks a major foreign policy success to distract attention from his growing troubles at home. Kim Jong-un will seek to exploit this urge of the US President. 

4 As for the Chinese, while they have been uncomfortable with North Korea's growing nuclear and missile programme, they would be equally uncomfortable, should Kim Jong-un's opening to the US result in an expanding relationship between the two countries. 

Kim Jong-un has made no public pronouncement to indicate that he is willing to meet the American demand of complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of his nuclear and missile capability. While announcing the suspension of nuclear and missile tests last month, he made it clear that in the light of the tests already conducted, no more were needed. 

North Korea's record of meeting its non-proliferation commitments has been dismal. An Agreed Framework with the US, signed in 1994, which committed them to freeze their plutonium weapons programme in exchange for aid, collapsed in 2003 when they withdrew from the NPT. Subsequently, six-party talks, involving China, North and South Korea, Japan, Russia and the US, resulted in a pledge by North Korea in 2005 to abandon "all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programmes" and return to the NPT. The talks, however, broke down subsequently over disagreements on verification and a North Korean rocket launch. 

North Koreans would also not be unmindful of the fate that befell Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi after he gave up his nuclear programme. Above all, Kim Jong-un runs one of, if not the most, brutal regimes in the world and sustains his hold on his people by invoking external threat(s), much like the Pakistan army promotes the India bogey to keep its stranglehold on their polity. Therefore, he would be extremely cautious about opening his country to South Korea and the world at large and letting the bogey of external threat(s) fall apart. His army, though in his grip, may also react adversely to any radical policy shift.

Kim Jong-un's first preference would be to retain his hitherto developed nuclear and missile capability, while possibly accepting some sort of freeze on its further development. He may at best settle for a long-drawn process involving certain disarmament steps by him in return for economic reward and other incentives at each stage and live to see his nuclear and missile programme develop further another day. 

He could, therefore, be expected to play on the factors motivating Trump and Moon Jae-in to get an agreement on the above lines, which would ease tensions in the Korean peninsula in the short run. However, the jury remains out in respect of the long-term positive impact, if any, of the ongoing diplomatic efforts on the situation in the peninsula.

Nobel Peace Prize for Trump? Hold your horses firmly!