Wages of Trump’s backing Sunnis

THERE was a twist in the tail of US President Donald Trump's recent visit to the Middle East that has come to haunt him and the region. In a much-publicised speech to the Muslim world in Riyadh, he surprised the world by his strong support for Sunni Islam and demonised Shia Iran. Was he then a bull in a China shop? And when Saudi Arabia, leading other Gulf monarchies and Egypt announced the breaking of diplomatic relations and all communication ties with Qatar, Mr Trump exulted in a tweet that his visit to the region was "already paying off". "I stated that there can be no role…in the funding of Radical ideology". Soon after his tweeting, Mr Trump was brought back to earth, presumably by his advisers, by asking him to telephone Saudi King Salman to stress the need for Gulf states' unity in the shape of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Qatar hosts the largest American military base in the region. And as Kuwait wore the mediator's role, Mr Trump has gone to the extent of offering his own mediation to keep the Sunni kingdoms together. As these events were unfolding, as if on cue, the Islamic State claimed it had launched unprecedented armed raids inside the Iranian Parliament and on the nearby mausoleum of the nation's founder, Ayatollah Khomeini. There was a hostage-like situation for a time and at least 13 people were killed. 

Advertisement

There has been bad blood between the independent-minded, energy-rich Qatar and the other Gulf states for a considerable time. Saudi Arabia and others had withdrawn their ambassadors to Doha to put pressure on the then young king after his father abdicated.  Other points of friction were apparent in the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood leader of Egypt, Mohamad Morsi, by an army coup led by General el-Sistani. While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cheered and financially supported him, Qatar objected. And contrary to other Gulf states, Qatar had relations with the Palestinian Hamas movement controlling Gaza to which he has given considerable humanitarian assistance. 

Another bone of contention was the ransom for $1 billion reportedly paid for the release of members of the Qatari ruling family out on a hunting trip in Iraq, with the money allegedly landing in the lap of extremist groups in Syria. While these issues have been rankling in royal circles in the other Gulf kingdoms, some reports suggest that "fake news" in the form of the hacking of the Qatari news site triggered the Saudi action. While these ambiguities are sorted out, it is clear President Trump's decision publicly to demonise Iran and signify strong support for the Sunni monarchs played a major role in the Saudi decision. Although the US had its own reservations on some of the policies pursued by Qatar, its views were expressed in private, unlike Mr Trump broadcasting his proclivities from the rooftop in Riyadh. 

Larger issues are also involved in the Saudi decision. Riyadh traditionally sees itself in the role of the big brother as far as other Gulf monarchies are concerned and is thus particularly sensitive to Qatar's independent-minded foreign policy with its immense resources and dollar reserves. Being the seat of Islam's two holiest sites and a vast network to spread the austere Wahhabism around the Muslim world, it seeks disciples not questioning fellow rulers. Being new to the job of running the country, President Trump is unaware of the edifice on which Washington's Middle-East policy rests: equal portions of self-interest and hypocrisy. The US establishment is sold on Israel, which receives the highest American military and economic assistance in the world and is biased towards Israel against the Palestinians.  Its military base in Qatar is the main implementer of its anti-Islamic State operations. 

It is a well-documented fact that the Saudi view of spreading its message around the Muslim world through subventions, Wahhabi preachers and the building of mosques are responsible for the new wave of a particular form of piety that often translates into extreme forms of the faith. Yet Washington has little to say on this phenomenon or that the majority of 9/11 attackers were Saudis. Perhaps the bumper military order Mr Trump pocketed during his visit helped. 

In practical terms, the Saudi action has caused immense problems for Qatar, with unscrambling of thousands of flights, making alternative arrangements for food imports, 40 per cent of which came across the land border with Saudi Arabia, now shut, and other necessities. Mercifully, Qatar has the resources to cope with the challenge. The Middle East is not a setting for novices. Qataris have been heartened by the support they have received from Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But there are no quick answers to the questions President Trump has posed by taking sides in the long-running Sunni-Shia contestation. Iran is a country with a considerable following in the region's changing geopolitical map. Iran has claimed a following in Shia-majority Iraq previously under the thumb of Sunni rulers, has a devoted set of followers in Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah movement, has sided with Houthis fighting the Saudi-led military operations in Yemen and is siding with the minority Maronite Shia clan of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad. 

President Trump's address in Riyadh bashing Iran was therefore like manna from heaven to bring the tiny kingdom of Qatar to heel. 

India comes into the picture tangentially in the millions of workers employed in Qatar and the other Gulf monarchies, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Apart from alternative travel arrangements they will have to make for visits home (depending on how long the crisis will last), they will be careful not to be caught in the cross-fire.  Who will put out the fire? Obviously, US officials will do their best to seek a rapprochement between the Saudis and Qatar. The Qatar US military base has 10,000 men, in addition to a dazzling array of warplanes.