Will the Arabs stick together?

Hasan Suroor 

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ON the face of it, Donald Trump’s stunt recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital isn't doing very well as was evident at the UN where despite his administration's bullying tactics the general assembly overwhelmingly voted for a resolution condemning his decision and declaring it “null and void”. Only a handful of small nations, cowed by his threat to cut aid if they supported the resolution, reluctantly voted against it. Still, the final tally (128 for, only nine against and 35 abstentions) was big enough to send Trump into an apoplectic rage. America, he roared, would not forget who voted against it — and in due course they would be punished.

“We will remember it when so many countries come calling on us...to pay even more. This vote will be remembered,” said America’s UN envoy Nikki Haley echoing him. 

India’s support for the resolution will have particularly angered Trump coming as it did barely hours after he had showered praise on it hailing it as a “leading global power” and  singling it out for a special relationship. He would have expected India to return the favour; instead he got a snub. One can imagine him growling: “Nasty Indians! Bloody Ingrates!! Very Bad!!!” Delhi had better watch out. The Palestinians were, of, course delighted that after a disappointingly muted initial reaction India finally came good. Palestinian diplomats in Delhi lobbied hard after a meeting with MJ Akbar, Minister of State for External Affairs, left them unsure of India’s intentions. “We were really very concerned after that meeting. That's when we decided to go all out to make our case,” reasoned Wael Albattrekhi, deputy chief of the Palestinian Mission in India. Until the last moment, they were not sure how India might vote.

So far, so good. But it would be a mistake to over-interpret the UN vote. Essentially, it was a symbolic victory; the hard battle to secure East Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian State still lies ahead. It’s important to remember that the vote was not so much about expressing solidarity with the Palestinian cause as condemning breaches of a series of UN resolutions against “acquisition of territory by force”, and unilaterally altering the status of Jerusalem.

The question for Palestinian leaders and the larger Arab world is: where do they go from here? So far, there’s little evidence that they have a clear plan to follow up their UN triumph apart from a lot of fighting talk and loud thinking. Macbeth’s famous line about “sound and fury signifying nothing” applies perfectly to the sound and fury coming out of Arab capitals. For all the apparent indignation, two weeks after Trump’s announcement they’re still struggling to frame a coherent response. A joint statement issued at the end of an emergency summit of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) in Istanbul was full of fire and brimstone but there was not even a hint of any concrete strategy except that they would no longer accept America as a player in the peace process. In a sign of how casually leading Arab countries approach the issue, only 20 of the 57 heads of state bothered to attend the Istanbul summit; others, including Saudi Arabia, were represented by their foreign ministers or officials.

That, in the circumstances they even managed to put on a public show of unity must rate as some sort of an achievement. All sounded suitably outraged calling the American move a threat to regional peace and stability. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas was particularly vocal declaring, in what's regarded as his strongest statement yet, that Washington had forfeited any role in the peace process. "While we engaged with them in the peace process for the sake of a deal, they  delivered a slap. We will no longer accept that it (America) has a role in the political process," he said. On his insistence, this was included in the joint statement but the final version, it is believed, was much milder than  a stronger  earlier draft. What we saw in Istanbul, however, was typical of frontline Arab countries' lack of political will to act for fear of offending their Western allies, especially America. 

Riven with internal divisions and rivalries (witness the Saudi-led campaign against Qatar), they have little time for Palestine beyond paying it lip service. Their current priority is containing Iran and to achieve this they have no compunction flirting with even Israel. On the basis that enemy's enemy is a friend, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states have found a common cause with Tel Aviv which also regards Iran as its principal enemy because of its support for Hamas and Hezbollah. It's also well known that Trump is working closely with the Saudis to kick-start the peace process, and  his son-in-law Jared Kushner, a Jew, is engaged in heavy lobbying through the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. There have been persistent media reports that after a recent meeting between the two, Salman summoned Mahmoud Abbas and showed him a plan that, according to The New York Times, was so heavily tilted in favour of Israel that "no Palestinian leader could ever accept" it. Under it, a future Palestinian state would be a patchwork of "non-contiguous part of the West Bank and only limited sovereignty over their own territory". Most of the illegal Israeli settlements would stay; the Palestinians would not have East Jerusalem as their capital; and no right of return for Palestinian refugees. And to add insult to injury, Abbas was reportedly told that if he didn't sign on the dotted lines he would be replaced by a more obliging leader. Abbas was said to be "alarmed and visibly upset".  

But Dr Wael Albattrekhi insisted that despite “our internal problems the Palestinian cause is still supreme”. “Together, we’re going to ramp up pressure  by seeking full UN membership, and joining scores of international institutions in the coming months, among other things.” If history, however, is any guide, the fightback will end here. Gradually, the rage will fizzle out, the allies will go back to their other priorities, and it will be back to business as usual until the next crisis erupts. Slowly, like other illegal Israeli settlements, Jerusalem will also become a  fait accompli. The only way to avert this dystopian scenario is for the big boys of the Arab world to acquire some mojo and use their leverage with their Western allies whose economies thrive on selling them everything from arms and paper clips to get a fair deal on Palestine. Do they have the political will to do it?

The writer is a London-based commentator