Modi in Russia

THE healthy order book in the armaments and petroleum sectors is hardly adequate to neutralise the tepid political vibes between Russia and India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia has confirmed that both countries have turned a new corner in bilateral relations. Their unequivocally complementary outlook on regional and security issues that underpinned their ties in sensitive sectors has now given way to a strictly transactional relationship. The trend began during Manmohan Singh’s premiership and has now become irreversible after the Modi government signed a military agreement with the US, while Russia inched closer to Pakistan and China. There is no sense of estrangement because each side has come to terms with the reality that every country has a multitude of relations, interests and contacts in the world.

The pact for two more nuclear power units, anti-missile defence systems, joint manufacture of frigates and hydrocarbons show that India and Russia have enough ballast. But their defence ties are drifting, partly due to the immense problem in sourcing spares. But Moscow also sees India as having cast its lot with the US that includes baiting China. Both leaders had to do some firefighting to clear perceptions on this score. Putin had to flatly point out that that “the US has ties with Pakistan but this does not prevent India from developing relations with the US.”

PM Modi too had to fall back on a Manmohan Singh formulation to impress on the Russian audience that the diplomatic sparring with China was within manageable limits: “in the last 40 years, not a single bullet has been fired because of the border dispute.” The biggest gap is on the Pakistan-Afghanistan security headache. Russia favours contacts with Pakistan and the Taliban, whereas India wants to isolate both. PM Modi’s peripatetic tendency should help narrow this divergence in approach. The two leaders will cross each other’s paths on at least four occasions this year. Both Modi and Putin will have to make an extra effort to bridge the trust deficit. After all, special Indo-Russia ties will act as a hedge during their difficult moments with other countries.