How Indians are deserting the Labour

Old habits die hard, but as the General Election day approaches for the United Kingdom on May 7, evidence is emerging that Labour can no longer count on the rock solid support it once enjoyed among Indian origin voters.

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Pollsters and analysts all confirm an Indian drift away from Labour, which mirrors a similar decline in support among ethnic minority voters from the Pakistani, Caribbean and African communities. Statistics from the British Election Study show that the number of Indian origin voters identifying with Labour has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to 45 per cent in 2014, a drop of more than 30 per cent.

Dr Maria Sobolewska, an academic from Manchester University who participated in the survey, told The Tribune that the decline in Labour support amounted to a “significant decrease”.

Earlier, she was quoted as telling a conference, “Labour is not really sitting pretty on ethnic minorities anymore and in fact it wasn’t in 2010 either... we can already see that a lot of the ethnic minority groups, in fact all of the ethnic minority groups, supported Labour a lot less even in 2010, but this did not yet make Labour worried. Looking at the 2014 figures, I am hoping that all of you from the Labour Party are shifting uncomfortably in your seats. This is a disaster.”

The change in Indian and other ethnic minority attitudes is especially significant given that Labour is still identified as the party supporting equal opportunities and anti-racial discrimination legislation. 

Former Conservative minister Enoch Powell is still remembered among older Indians for the controversial ‘Rivers of Blood’ speech when he talked about the dangers associated with rising levels of immigration. Only a few years earlier in 1964, Conservative campaigners were linked to the slogan ‘If you want a nigger for a neighbour, vote Liberal or Labour’.

More than 50 years later, some of those memories are fading among second and third generation Indians, who identify less strongly with Labour and are socially more conservative on culture, marriage and gay issues. “Once we had Tony Blair as the Labour leader, the rate of progressivity and attention given to the ethnic minority vote and issues of racial discrimination went down,” explains Dr Stephen Fisher of Oxford University. “The Labour Party hasn’t been so active and the 2010 manifesto barely had any mention of race discrimination issues. So maybe Labour is losing their competitive advantage in that area. The Tories are also making much more effort to appeal to ethnic minorities, especially Indian voters.”

These are uncomfortable trends for Labour leader Ed Miliband, who hopes to be the next British Prime Minister in what is expected to be the most closely fought General Election ever.

His advisers have told him that while India-born voters amount to less than 10 lakh in a total voting population of 4 crore, they are concentrated in 60 to 70 marginal seats where a small handful of votes could mean the difference between overall success or failure.

All this represents an opportunity for Conservative leader and Prime Minister David Cameron, who currently heads an outgoing coalition government.

Hence the comments of Sikh origin Conservative MP Paul Uppal, who said last year, “I accept that for a long time maybe people have been looking at us as a party that’s not been open to everybody. But I wouldn’t be a Conservative if I didn’t feel that this party was trying to change things, open the door, and actually open the door for everybody in the UK regardless of their ethnic background. I think it’s important for us as a party to focus on connection, to actually show we’re inclusive, and we’re doing that.”

Kenya-born Uppal, whose ancestors are from Jalandhar, told The Tribune in separate comments, “I will always be grateful to the UK for the refuge, security and opportunities that were provided to my family.” He added, “I think that Indian voters have realised over the last five years the benefits of a Conservative-led government. A strong economy, rewarding hard work and the creation of faith schools, like Nishkam Primary School in Wolverhampton South West.”

Uppal’s comments precede the findings of the British Sikh Report 2015 which established that 31 per cent of British Sikhs intend to vote for Labour, while 16 per cent intend voting Conservatives. Like the rest of the South Asian population, only a handful of British Sikhs say they will vote for minor political parties like the Greens and UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party).

Like other Indians settled in the UK, British Sikhs also consider the National Health Service and economy to be among the more important issues facing the UK today. Where the Sikhs and other Indians differ from the majority white population is their assessment about the impact of immigration. Large numbers (47 per cent), according to one authoritative report, believe immigration has enriched British culture, compared to 28 per cent of whites.

This difference in attitudes towards the contribution made by immigrants could still be exploited by Labour in the weeks leading up to the election.

Dr Sobolewska said that despite the changing trends, a significant number of Indian origin voters (25-30 per cent) are still undecided. “They are your dream swing voters and they could go to the party that asks for their votes.”

Conservative on Labour

• The number of Indian origin voters identifying with Labour has fallen from 77 pc in 1997 to 45 pc in 2014
• Are concentrated in 60-70 marginal seats where a handful of votes could mean the difference between overall success or failure
• Second and third generation Indians identify less strongly with Labour and are socially more conservative on culture, marriage and gay issues
• British Sikh Report 2015 says 31 pc intend to vote for Labour, 16 pc for Conservatives

I think Indian voters have realised over the last five years the benefits of a Conservative-led government — a strong economy, rewarding hard work and the creation of faith schools. — Paul Uppal, Conservative MP