Mamata to retain Bengal; hung Assembly in Assam: Poll survey

New Delhi, April 1 

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Assam may throw up a hung Assembly with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Congress there engaged in a neck-and-neck fight, while the Left Democratic Front could oust the Congress-led alliance in Kerala, an opinion poll has projected.

Both the ruling parties Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu are poised to return to power, according to a press release issued by India TV, which has carried out the opinion poll in collboration with C-Voter.

The opinion poll projects that the BJP-led alliance in Assam could win 55 seats in a House of 126, nine short of majority while Congress led by Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is projected to win 53 seats, down from 78 it had won five years ago.

The BJP-led alliance includes the AGP and Bodo People's Front.

Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front is projected to win 12 seats, six less than last time, while 'Others' may win six seats.

In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front is projected to get a comfortable majority with 86 seats in a House of 140, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front, which is currently ruling the state, is projected to get 53 seats.          

The opinion poll says that the BJP-led alliance may win only one seat there.

In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, with her party Trinamool Congress likely to win 160 seats — 24 seats less than 184 the party had got five years ago, —in a House of 294, the opinion poll says.    

Left Front and Congress, which are fighting the state under a strategic understanding this time, could win a total of 127 seats together — 106 and 21 respectively. The poll projects the BJP winning only four and 'others' three seats.

This means the Left Front's tally may go up to 106 seats, up from 60 seats five years ago, while the Congress share of seats may shrink from 42 five years ago to 21 this time.

In Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister J Jayalalitha's AIADMK-led combine may get a comfortable majority with 130 seats in a House of 234 while the DMK-Congress alliance is projected to secure 70 seats. Others may win 34 seats.

The poll was conducted in the fourth week of March according to C-Voter, the release said. Vote percentage wise, LDF in Kerala is projected to get 43.8 per cent, up by 0.2 per cent, while UDF is projected to get 41.3 per cent — 4.5 per cent down from the 45.8 percent they had got last time.

In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress vote share may rise to 39.6 per cent from 38.9 per cent of last time, while the Left Front's vote share may slip to 31.4 per cent from 39.7 per cent last time.

Congress vote is also projected to slip from 9.1 per cent to 8.3 per cent. But they seem to be making gains together due to the strategic partnership. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 4.1 per cent this time from 2.2 per cent of last time.

The opinion poll projects that the BJP-led alliance in Assam could get 35 per cent votes, up from 33.9 per cent it had got last time, while the ruling Congress voteshare may be reduced to 36.9 per cent from 39.4 per cent it had secured in the last assembly polls.

The opinion poll also projects a slight fall in the vote share of AIUDF from 12.6 per cent to 12.1 per cent this time.

In Tamil Nadu, where AIADMK is the ruling party, though it appears way ahead in number of seats it could win, the opinion poll projects a drastic fall in its vote share to 39.1 per cent down from 51.9 per cent in last elections.

Even the DMK-Congress vote share is projected to go down to 31.8 per cent from 39.5 per cent last time. BJP-led alliance's vote share is, however, projected to rise to 4.1 per cent from 2.2 per cent last time.

West Bengal and Assam will go to polls this month. — PTI