Economy to grow at 9.2%: NSO

New Delhi, January 7

The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 9.2 per cent in 2021-22, as against a contraction of 7.3 per cent in the previous fiscal, said the National Statistical Office (NSO) while releasing the GDP estimates for this fiscal.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) a month ago projected a more optimistic GDP growth rate of 9.5 per cent with inflation estimated at 5.3 per cent. Some rating agencies fear that the rising Omicron cases may shave off up to 0.3 per cent from the GDP estimates for the fourth quarter. In actual numbers, the real GDP in 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 147.54 lakh crore against the provisional estimate of Rs 135.13 lakh crore.

In other words, the NSO anticipates the GDP to grow by about Rs 12 lakh crore during the current fiscal. The numbers are still below the pre-pandemic levels. At this point two years ago, the NSO had estimated the real GDP for 2019-20 at Rs 147.79 lakh crore. This means at the end of the current fiscal, the real GDP will fall short of the performance achieved two years ago.

The growth in GDP was mainly due to improvement in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. “The advance estimates are more optimistic considering the supply bottlenecks, coal, power and semiconductor shortages and the looming third wave of the pandemic,” said analysts at Brickwork Ratings. Despite a shortfall in disinvestment proceeds and additional demand for supplementary grants, the fiscal deficit target of 6.8% of the GDP is likely to be achieved, the NSO said.

IN FIGURES

• Rs147.54 lakh cr estimated real GDP in 2021-22
• Rs147.79 lakh cr estimate in pre-Covid time (2019-20)
• 6.8% GDP deficit target likely to be achieved