MPC inflation forecasts show no systematic bias as RBI now uses 'suite of models': RBI DG

Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], November 26 (ANI): The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken a series of major initiatives in the recent past to modernise the central bank's data and statistical systems to keep pace with India's rapidly evolving economy.

Addressing the challenges of inflation and growth forecasting, especially given India's high food weight in the CPI basket, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said the RBI now employs a "suite of models," high-frequency indicators, expert consultations, and updated data windows to minimise errors.

She noted that MPC inflation forecasts show no systematic bias, according to the RBI's recent Review of the Monetary Policy Framework.

She said the RBI publishes extensive economic and financial data from daily to annual frequency, and is rolling out a redesigned Database on Indian Economy (DBIE).

The platform currently hosts over 2,000 tables and 20,000 data series across sectors, and now features real-time updates to the Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy. Planned upgrades include API-based access, improved visualisation tools and a harmonised experience across web and mobile

Her remarks came at a pre-release consultative workshop on the base revision of key macroeconomic indicators organised by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

Calling statistics a "public good," the RBI DG praised MoSPI's efforts to update the base years of GDP, CPI, and IIP, and underscored the need for timely, granular, and modern datasets in an era shaped by digitalisation, shifting consumption patterns, and new modes of production and finance.

She highlighted that, as a significant step toward timeliness, the RBI has reduced the lag in quarterly Balance of Payments releases from 90 to 60 days and plans to introduce monthly BoP statistics with a 40-day lag. This aligns India with the IMF's newly released BPM7 manual.

"The central bank is also reviewing its enterprise and household surveys some unchanged for nearly a decade. Enhancements will include expanded coverage, new sector inclusion (such as semiconductors and EVs), updated methodologies, improved questionnaires, and the possible use of household panels to track inflation expectations and sentiment better," she said. (ANI)

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