S&P lowers India’s GDP growth for FY21 to 5.2%

New Delhi, March 23

S&P Global Ratings on Monday cut its estimate for India’s GDP growth in the fiscal starting April 1 to 5.2% from its earlier estimate of 6.5%, as it saw the outbreak of coronavirus costing economies around the globe.

It put “the total and permanent income loss for Asia-Pacific from Covid-19 at approximately $620 billion.” “This loss will be distributed across sovereign, bank, corporate and household balance sheets,” it said but did not give country-wise break-up estimated loss.

S&P said it has revised estimates for real GDP, inflation and policy interest rates for Asia-Pacific nations.

For India, it estimated a 5.2% growth in 2020-21 (April 2020 to March 2021), down from the previous estimate of 6.5%. In the following year, it projects a 6.9% growth, down from 7% earlier for 2021-22.

For the current fiscal which ends on March 31, it put the real GDP estimate at 5%. It estimated a 7% growth in 2022-23 and 2023-24 fiscal years.

The inflation rate was seen moderating to 4.4% in the next fiscal from 4.7% in the current. It would further drop to 4.2% in 2021-22 but rise to 4.4% in the following financial year and then to 4.5% in the year thereafter.

Key policy interest rates are projected to fall to 4.25% in 2020-21 from current 5.15% but would rise to 4.5% in the 2021-21 financial year. — PTI

Puts Asia-Pacific loss at $620 bn

• It put “the total and permanent income loss for Asia-Pacific from Covid-19 at approximately $620 billion”
• This loss will be distributed across sovereign, bank, corporate and household balance sheets
• S&P said it has revised estimates for real GDP, inflation and policy interest rates for Asia-Pacific nations
• For the current fiscal which ends on March 31, it put the real GDP estimate at 5%