Canadian dream fades for Indian students amid stricter visa policies

Canada’s doors are closing fast for Indian students. A staggering over 65 per cent plunge in study permits from April to June 2025 reveals a harsh reality. The IRCC data issued last week shows a sharp drop from 55,660 permits in Q2 of 2024 to a mere 17,885 this year. This isn’t just a phase — it’s a clear, relentless decline, which is not likely to end anytime soon.

So is this the end of the Canadian dream for Indian immigrant students? The numbers suggest yes.

This continuing downward trend is a result of new, stricter federal policies that were introduced during the last leg of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership to reduce the number of international students entering Canada. Besides the decline in permits, data also shows a significant drop in approval rates for Indian applicants. The approval rate for study permits in the second quarter of 2025 dropped to 20 per cent, a sharp decline from the 80 per cent approval rate seen just three years prior.

Reasons for decline 

According to immigration experts, the reduction in study permits is a direct consequence of new and more restrictive measures implemented by the Canadian government. These include a two-year national cap on new study permits (437,000 for 2025, a 10 per cent decrease from the previous year); higher financial requirements for students (proof of funds doubled from USD10,000 to 20,635); and the ending of Student Direct Stream (SDS) and Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) for two-year courses.

According to Bharti Goel, a Brampton-based immigration consultant, the ending of the SDS and PGWP programmes has hit the Indian students the most. She said SDS was an expedited application process for international students from specific countries, including India, China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Brazil, and the Philippines.

This programme had faster visa processing times, with a target of 20 calendar days for eligible applicants. Though the programme had some strict upfront requirements, as compared to other student visa applications, its approval ratings were much higher.

“This stream had made study permits super easy, as almost everyone who applied was able to get a visa”, said Bharti, adding that the programme was ended in November last year to ostensibly create a “fairer and more equitable application process for all international students, regardless of their country of origin”. She said the programme’s closure was part of the larger federal strategy to manage the volume of international students.

Bharti said since India was the largest source of international students to Canada, these policy changes have hit Indians disproportionately. While Canada still remains a popular destination for Indian students, the path to a Canadian education is more expensive, competitive, and uncertain, she said.

According to some other experts, this decline is likely to continue into 2026 and thereafter too. Besides the policy alterations, changes made to PGWP last year, making the path of Canadian permanent residency tougher, will also probably dampen the long-term appeal of studying in Canada for career-focused students. Many non-degree programmes that were popular in 2024 now no longer qualify for it.

Colleges hit too

The pain of these policy changes is not only being felt by the Indian students, but colleges too. Many Canadian colleges, particularly those reliant on international student tuition, face significant revenue losses due to reduced enrolments. Some institutions report potential multi-million-dollar losses.

According to estimates, international students contributed nearly USD 31 billion to Canada’s economy and supported more than 360,000 jobs in 2022. A recent CBC report quotes Ontario colleges officials that around 70 per cent of programmes offered by colleges have become ineligible for PGWP after the changes and close to USD 2 billion in revenue is potentially at risk.

Some estimates put that nearly 10,000 college faculty and staff jobs have been lost or are at risk in Ontario alone, as a direct result of changes to international student visas. If the impact is considered in other provinces, particularly British Columbia, these job losses will be much higher.

The Canadian dream

While these falling numbers surely indicate that the Canadian dream for immigrants from India has ended, the truth is that it has fundamentally changed and become more challenging. The era of students packing their bags and landing in Canada with confirmed admission to postgraduate courses in colleges (even private ones) and then gradually following the path to permanent residency via a PGWP is completely over.

The new reality requires stronger qualifications and a clear understanding of significantly higher risks that a mere admission into a good course is not a key to residency and Canadian citizenship. The “Canadian dream” may still be attainable for high-skilled workers and advanced students with strong academic backgrounds in high-demand fields. Admissions into public universities and not just any college in courses that are in demand may still provide a path for students to realise their dream in this country.

The Canadian dream persists, but its pursuit requires more than just ambition — it demands preparation, foresight, and an unwavering commitment to excellence.