Experts: Too soon to call it a second wave

Naina Mishra
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, November 20

For the fourth consecutive day, the city recorded over 100 cases and is pacing towards a second wave. However, public health experts say a second wave can be termed only when the city will peak 400 infections in a day, as was observed in September.

“The surge seen this time is due to festivities. Every time cases peaked, there was always a festival around the corner,” said Dr Amandeep Kaur Kang, Director, Health Services, UT.

The city was witnessing 40 to 50 cases per day in October and peaked to 80 cases in a single day on October 29, four days after Dasehra. Similarly, 133 cases were recorded on November 6, two days after Karva Chauth.

Three days after Diwali, the city again witnessed 136 cases, followed by 145 cases and 155 cases on the next two days, respectively. A UT public health expert from the state Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) cell said, “At this point of time, we will just call it a bit of a surge in the Covid-19 cases, which can be attributed to festivities wherein social distancing norms were not adhered to. When people were distributing sweets, they obviously took their mask off.

A spike was witnessed around Karva Chauth, Dasehra and Diwali due to intermingling of population. In the first surge, the city recorded 450 cases on September 13. The surge now is not even one-third of what was reported previously.”

If we continue to witness a peak in the coming days wherein cases jump to 200 and beyond, we may call it a second wave. The incubation period is two to 14 days and Diwali has passed. There is still time to see how the infection will grow,” said the official.

What Director, Health Services, UT, says

“Healthcare workers, pregnant women and OPD patients represent the community and a high positivity rate among them shows that there is a high prevalence of infection in the community,” said Dr Amandeep Kaur Kang, Director, Health Services, UT.

“Last time in September when cases were spiralling, a lot of pregnant women tested positive in the RT-PCR test. All gynae wards at the GMSH, Sector 16, and other hospitals were full of Covid positive pregnant women. This time also, we are testing pregnant women daily and hardly anyone has tested positive. The prevalence in the community is low. Every day, 200-300 OPD patients are being tested for Covid and soon we are going to test our healthcare workers as well.”

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