Weakening of monsoon notwithstanding, rain surplus in region so far

Vijay Mohan
Tribune News Service
Chandigarh, June 22

Notwithstanding the weakening of the south-western monsoon that is still to cover some part of Punjab and Haryana, rains over the region during this season so far have been above normal.

The Monsoon arrived over the region about 15 days in advance and has covered most parts of the country, but prevailing climatic conditions have been withholding progress into its last phase.

A bulletin issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday evening states that further progress of monsoon is unlikely during the next 7 days. Analysis of predictive models up to June 30 indicates mid-latitude westerly winds dominating over north India during the next week.

A Western Disturbance as lies over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir and its associated meteorological developments are likely to enhance rainfall along the east coast during 24-26 June. These are not favourable for enhancing monsoon activity over central and northwest India, IMD said.

Forecasts based on model consensus show less probability of formation of low pressure systems over core monsoon areas as well as over north Bay of Bengal till June 30 and further weakening of lower levels easterly winds over northern plains of India, IMD added.

At present, the northern limit of southwest monsoon continues to pass through Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar, which is about the same as it was on June 14.

According to data compiled by the IMD, cumulative rainfall during this year’s southwestern monsoon across the country has been 37 per cent above the long period average (LPA) so far.

As far as the region is concerned, rain was 66 per cent above the LPA in Haryana for the period from June 1 to June 22. In Punjab and Himachal Pradesh it was above the LPA by 51 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively, for this period. Barring four districts in Punjab and two each in Haryana and Himachal, all parts of these states have received surplus rainfall so far.

The IMD has predicted that under the influence of western disturbance and upper tropospheric westerlies, the current spell of isolated light to moderate rainfall is very likely to continue over the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India during the next five days. A gradual rise in maximum temperatures by 3-4 degrees Celsius over most parts of northwest India is also expected during the next three days

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