A chance to resolve India-China border dispute

India has done well in not only combating the coronavirus internally but also assisting nations in the region and beyond, including the US, in a much-needed outreach, enhancing its goodwill and linkages. The world order after Covid-19 is an opportunity for India to position itself as a global leader, asserting its just and rightful place. India will be the ‘balancing power’ and, hence, should leverage its position with China and the US.

Fragile peace: Managing contested border with China is a drain on the armed forces.

Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (retd)

Director, Centre for Joint Warfare Studies

Having commanded the Sukna Corps, the recent face-off at Nakula in north Sikkim, reportedly leading to a scuffle and injuries to soldiers on both sides, came as a surprise. This was the first of its kind at Nakula, and was closely followed by a similar face-off and scuffle in eastern Ladakh, again reportedly resulting in the scrambling of Indian Air Force Sukhois, to deter Chinese helicopter activity. India shares a 3,488-km contested border with China.

On account of an improved connectivity, infrastructure development and access to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the depth, frequency and intensity of such face-offs will increase, threatening a fragile peace which exists, with the last shot fired in anger in October 1975. Such incidents and standoffs like the one at Doklam in 2017 or Depsang and Chumar are the ever-present potential drivers of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours — home to one-third of humanity.

The LAC is based on perceptions and, hence, bereft of a common understanding, leading to frequent transgressions and face-offs, with the potential to spiral into a skirmish and an avoidable conflict. China’s assertiveness on the LAC and India’s strong stance of ‘no blinking’ are likely to be the new normal.

The emerging world order after Covid-19 is an opportunity for India and China to resolve the ‘boundary question’, and seek a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution. Winston Churchill once said, “A pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity, an optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.” Covid-19 is an opportunity for India to assert its rightful place in the emerging world order and, equally important, to resolve the vexed ‘boundary question’ with China. The last few months have changed the thought and behaviour patterns of society, people, nations and the world. Covid-19 has directly impacted the emerging world order, which is likely to witness a shift of power from the West to the East. The global architecture will witness major shifts as the West battles the pandemic not so successfully and China losing its leverages as it is believed to have caused the pandemic.

India, on the other hand, has done well in not only combating the coronavirus internally but also assisting nations in the region and beyond, including the US, in a much-needed outreach, enhancing its goodwill and linkages. The post-Covid-19 world order is an opportunity for India to position itself as a global leader, asserting its just and rightful place. India will be the ‘balancing power’ and, hence, should leverage its position with both China and the US.

The India-China relationship is one of the most fascinating relationships between two major powers, despite a contested boundary. The way they have managed the relationship ever since the war of 1962 is a remarkable achievement, despite the many sensitive border standoffs. This speaks of the salience of the confidence-building measures (CBMs). The prevailing equilibrium along the LAC is enshrined in the five principles of Panchsheel and the five treaties between India and China which detail the CBMs and military engagements ensure fragile peace and tranquility. However, the prevailing fragile peace is under stress and both countries will do well to delimit, delineate and demarcate the boundary.

The conceptual framework for the resolution of the boundary is defined in the 11 Articles of the April 2005 agreement on political parameters and guiding principles. India and China, with two strong leaders in Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping, have the political capital and clout to resolve the issue. The two leaders have demonstrated mutual respect and chemistry not seen earlier, having met at an average of three to four times every year, including the path-breaking informal summit at Wuhan which resulted in the resolution of the 73-day Doklam standoff.

Modi has also demonstrated political will to implement tough decisions, be it the surgical and precision air strikes against terror camps in Pakistan or the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A in J&K. He has been re-elected with a massive mandate and can make a boundary resolution with China acceptable to the nation and the people.

The benefits that accrue of settled northern borders are obvious. It is also a fact that managing contested borders is a continuous costly drain on the armed forces and the ever-depleting defence budget. Once resolved, India will be able to optimise the defence forces, position itself as a military power and focus on the western borders by raising the costs of the proxy war by Pakistan, leading to relative peace.

Xi Jinping has followed many of Mao’s dictums and diktats, one of which envisaged China having inclusive land borders. Whether or not the mention of inclusive maritime borders was left out by default or design is a matter of debate. Accordingly, over the years, China has resolved the land border rows with 12 of the 14 nations, the exceptions being India and Bhutan.

Xi gave the first indication of a shift in China’s position to resolve the boundary row immediately after taking over as the supreme leader of China in March 2013. In a meeting with the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Dublin on March 28, 2013, while discussing the boundary question, he said, “China and India should improve and make good use of the mechanism of special representatives to strive for a fair, reasonable solution and framework acceptable to both sides as early as possible.”

This was a major shift in the position as hitherto, both sides regarded the boundary question as a complex historical legacy which would take time to resolve. It is in the interests of both countries to resolve the matter.

The 22nd meeting of the special representatives, NSA Ajit Doval and Wang Yi, State Councillor, was held in New Delhi on December 21, 2019. An MEA press brief stated: “Both underlined the importance of approaching the boundary question from the strategic perspective of India-China relations and agreed that an early settlement of the boundary question serves the fundamental interests of both countries.”

If ever there is or will be a historic opportunity for the two Asian giants to resolve the contested boundary, it’s now, an opportunity provided by the pandemic.