A new dawn for India-EU relations
THE first-ever visit of the European Union (EU) Commissioners’ College, headed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to India took place last week. The Commissioners’ College is the political leadership of the European Commission and is composed of the President, five Executive Vice-Presidents, a High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and 20 Commissioners representing member states, each with a specific portfolio. This is the first time that the College has travelled outside Europe.
There are compelling reasons for India and the EU to forge a truly strong and stable partnership. Both are multiethnic, multireligious, multilingual and multicultural plural democracies and each has a stake in the success and resilience of the other. They have a convergence of geopolitical interests. India has an abiding preference for a multipolar global order and so does the EU since each strives to uphold its strategic autonomy. India has always been supportive of a strong and relatively independent Europe because this would foster a multipolar world. For Europe, too, a strong and independent India should have been worthy of support, but this has been less salient over the years.
It was in November 2004 that at the 5th India-EU summit at The Hague, India and the EU first established a strategic partnership. I was Foreign Secretary at that time and it did appear then that the stars had become aligned in giving a new and positive direction to the relationship based on the perception of a strong strategic convergence. But then India and the EU drifted apart. This was mainly due to China emerging as a significant economic and commercial opportunity for the EU. The negotiations on an ambitious India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), mandated at the summit in 2004, soon ran aground as the strategic focus got blurred and technicalities and nitpicking clogged the negotiation process. The differences between the two sides at multilateral fora on trade and climate issues became sharper. India found it easier and more productive to deal with major European countries like the UK, France and Germany bilaterally rather than engage substantially with the EU bureaucracy.
As the EU’s relations with Russia deteriorated, especially after the latter’s occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, the EU began to see India-Russia relations in an increasingly negative light. This negativity became more pronounced with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the reluctance on the part of India to publicly condemn Moscow or to follow the EU in imposing economic sanctions on Russia.
It is against this backdrop that the reset in India-EU relations becomes significant. It is driven by the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, dramatised most recently by the televised fracas between US President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelenskyy at the Oval Office. European countries are scrambling to contain the fallout of what amounts to throwing Ukraine under the Russian bus. One should thank Trump for imparting new momentum to India-EU relations and for a change in the European perspective on India.
The delegation held meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and virtually his entire Cabinet. A joint statement issued at the end of the visit and the press conference at which PM Modi and the European Commission chief spoke on the importance of the visit and its outcomes reflect the new salience the partnership has acquired. There has always been a very wide-spectrum agenda for cooperation between the two sides, but it will now be pursued with much greater vigour. Most important is their stated commitment to conclude a bilateral FTA by the year-end. Another potentially important area of cooperation is the defence and security sector. While the EU has been primarily a political and economic entity, it has more recently assumed a defence and security role, including the promotion of joint production of military equipment, joint acquisition and research & development.
A closer defence partnership with the EU would enable India to diversify its military procurement and develop its own capabilities. Ever since President Trump assumed office in Washington, there are growing uncertainties over the US commitment to European defence through the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Trump’s reaching out to Russian President Vladimir Putin on settling the Ukraine crisis without involving European leaders, the targeting of Europe with high tariffs and the open courting of right-wing political figures in major European nations — all this has made the US an unpredictable adversary rather than a trusted ally. The European Commission chief admitted that her visit was taking place at a geopolitical “inflection point” and that the India-EU partnership had assumed heightened importance in that context.
One may ask why Europe is not turning to China instead, given its much larger economic and commercial relationship with that country. China would be responsive to European moves to forge a closer political and economic partnership, taking advantage of its rift with the US. Indeed, there have been voices in Europe recommending precisely such a move. There are good reasons why India has been given priority.
One, there is the recognition that India, despite some disturbing signs, is a vibrant, plural democracy with which the EU has a greater degree of political affinity than with China.
Two, there is an apprehension, which India may share, that Trump may well strike a deal with China, which would strike at the very root of a multipolar order.
Three, Chinese strategic alignment with Russia is deeper, more enduring than may appear at first sight. China has endorsed the Russian view on European security and this is spelt out in the China-Russia communique of February 4, 2022, concluded virtually on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While India has a legacy relationship with Russia, it is not in the nature of a strategic alignment. There may thus be greater comfort in pursuing an India-EU partnership.
Von der Leyen remarked that her visit was taking place amid a rare and perfect alignment of seven planets and that India-EU relations were also becoming aligned, presaging a deeper engagement and closer collaboration.
One hopes that this time round, India-EU ties indeed become stronger and enduring. They could become a much-valued stable anchor in a world of shifting geopolitics and unexpected crises.
