A survival battle for Cong amid rising dissent

The optics could not have been worse for the Congress on the eve of a crucial round of Assembly polls. As it battles to reclaim governments in Kerala and Assam, pull its weight as an ally in Tamil Nadu and defend what’s left of its turf in West Bengal and Puducherry, it’s also struggling to extinguish fires in its backyard.

It lost its government in Puducherry with a slew of defections to the BJP just before the election dates were announced. A day after the Election Commission sounded the poll bugle, old fault lines resurfaced with fresh salvos from the G-23, as the group of dissidents has come to be known after it shot off a protest letter to Sonia Gandhi last summer. The letter was a stinging indictment of Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, although the writers were careful not to name him.

The latest attacks from the dissident group were least expected. A public meeting in Jammu lamenting the weakening of the Congress, tweets from Shimla questioning the alliance with the Muslim cleric-led Indian Secular Front in Bengal and now reports of another G-23 event in Haryana. All this amid moves by Sonia Gandhi to break up the dissenters by co-opting a select few. The Congress cuts a sorry figure at a time when it should be putting its best foot forward to script a comeback of sorts.

It should be evident to the Gandhis by now that simmering resentment in the party is reaching the boiling point. The continuing opacity on the leadership question (will Rahul Gandhi take over as president or won’t he), a shrinking national footprint (the Congress heads only two state governments now and is a very junior partner in two others) and growing uncertainty about the Gandhi family’s appeal as vote-catchers are taking their toll. The party’s morale has never been this low.

Although few in the Congress will say so openly, time is running out for the Gandhis. The impatience with Rahul Gandhi is palpable. His coterie may try to silence the critics by accusing them of secretly cohabiting with the BJP, but the issues flagged by the G-23 are increasingly finding resonance both inside the party and outside in the public at large.

The upcoming elections could well prove to be a watershed. If Mamata Banerjee is fighting for survival against a rampaging BJP in West Bengal, this round has become a do-or-die battle for Rahul Gandhi too. He must deliver a victory in at least one if not both the states in which the Congress is the primary challenger — Kerala and Assam — to secure his future as Congress president. Another failure will only swell the ranks of the G-23.

There seems to be a glimmer of realisation that the family’s unquestioned dominance of the party is under threat for the first time since Indira Gandhi lost the 1977 election, leading to a split in the Congress. This is evident from the way the brother and sister duo of Rahul and Priyanka have thrown themselves into the campaign for these elections.

With the exception of the 2017 Gujarat Assembly poll, Rahul Gandhi’s style has been to flit in and out of poll-bound states and leave the heavy lifting to local leaders. In last year’s Bihar election, for instance, after squeezing as many as 70 seats from a reluctant RJD, Rahul Gandhi hardly showed his face during the campaign. In fact, he disappeared for a holiday.

This time, the Gandhis have surprised the rank and file with an altogether different strategy ensuring high visibility of both brother and sister. Not only has Rahul Gandhi parked himself in the South for the entire duration of electioneering, he has also dispatched Priyanka Vadra to Assam. This is Priyanka Vadra’s first campaign foray outside of UP, a move to signal seriousness of intent.

They are also throwing up multiple touchy-feely photo-ops. Like Rahul Gandhi’s Bollywood moment when he jumped into the sea fully clothed, mask and all, to woo Kerala fisher folk. Twitterati was dazzled by his fitness, as evident from his dripping wet T-shirt when he emerged from the water.

In Assam, Priyanka Vadra borrowed from grandmother Indira Gandhi’s playbook by plucking tea with tea garden workers in Assam and dancing with them. More importantly, there have been efforts apparently to correct organisational weaknesses in the two important states. Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel has been roped in to help with booth management and voter outreach in Assam. In Kerala, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has been pressed into service.

Interestingly, the Congress has also resurrected former Kerala chief Oommen Chandy to strengthen its ranks. While this has created some discord with the Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala, the Congress seems to have decided to follow the BJP’s tactics in West Bengal of calling all hands on deck.

The result day, May 2, will tell us whether the Gandhis have managed to steady their ship. Rahul Gandhi desperately needs a victory to silence the naysayers and prove his relevance to his party.