A whiff of the Islamic bomb

SAUDI Arabia and Pakistan signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement during the recent visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who was accompanied by Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, to Riyadh. According to the joint statement, “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” The full text of the agreement has not yet been disclosed.

A Saudi official has been quoted as saying by Reuters that the accord is a culmination of years of discussions and it “encompasses all military means” — a pointer towards Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. On being asked a day later whether Pakistan’s nuclear assets were part of the agreement, Defence Minister Khwaja Asif said, “What we have, our capabilities, will absolutely be available under this pact.” He did not rule out the inclusion of other Arab nations in the accord.

After India’s nuclear tests in 1974, Pakistani leaders, notably then PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, came up with the idea of an ‘Islamic bomb’ in response to a ‘Hindu bomb’, a ‘Jewish bomb’ and a ‘Christian bomb’. Pervez Musharraf disowned this label after N-proliferation skeletons came tumbling out of nuclear physicist AQ Khan’s cupboard. However, the latest developments have a whiff of the Islamic bomb. It is perhaps with an eye on the international implications of this impression that in a subsequent media interview, Asif made the cryptic remark that nuclear weapons “were not on the radar.”

Pakistan has had long-standing defence ties with Saudi Arabia in the form of deployment of troops in the kingdom, training of Saudi armed forces, joint exercises and the pledge to protect the holy mosques at Mecca and Medina. In 1979, Pakistan deployed its Special Services Group to help the Saudis in ending the siege of the Grand Mosque in Mecca by militants opposed to the monarchy. The Saudi-led Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition is commanded by a former Pak Army Chief, Gen Raheel Sharif, since 2017.

In this backdrop, the recent defence accord is continuation of a long trend, except for the concept of joint deterrence against any aggression and the subsequent hints of Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia. It may have been under discussion for a long time, but came in the wake of the Israeli attack on the Hamas leadership in Qatar.

Israel has decimated Hezbollah and Hamas over the past two years. Its spectacular air attacks in June this year decapitated the Iranian military command and nuclear establishment, causing a serious setback to Iran’s nuclear programme. Its attack in Qatar, which has strong defence ties with the US and houses the forward headquarters of the US Central Command, was a strong signal of its emergence as the pre-eminent military power in the region. The downplaying of the incident by the US raised serious doubts about the American protection that the Arab monarchies have counted upon. This seems to have spurred Saudi Arabia to conclude the agreement with Pakistan. We may see further churn in the security architecture of the region.

With the signing of the defence accord, the traditional defence linkages between the two sides should continue. Such linkages can be ensured by Pakistan’s conventional military capability, but if the Saudis see the accord as a hedge against a possible threat from Israel, it would make little sense without bringing Pakistan’s nuclear capability into the equation. After all, an Israeli threat will not take the form of a ground offensive and Pakistan is no match for Israel’s air warfare capability. Hence the hints at Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.

The efficacy of the Pakistani nuclear umbrella is, of course, quite another matter. While the Pakistani establishment is proactive in flaunting its N-arsenal, it will never put itself in jeopardy by pulling the nuclear trigger in favour of another country. Moreover, even a hint of the nuclear dimension coming into play would alarm other major powers, including Pakistan’s iron brother China. There has been no reaction to the accord from the US so far. Was Washington kept in the loop or does it regard the agreement as no more than reinforcement of the traditional defence ties? We do not know the answer for the moment.

India has said that it is aware of the development to formalise a long-standing arrangement between the two countries and would study its implications. India has also spoken of its wide-ranging strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and expressed the expectation that the latter would keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities.

The apprehension of the Saudis getting physically involved in a future India-Pak armed conflict is misplaced. India’s ties with Saudi Arabia, including in the defence domain, have strengthened over the past two decades. The Saudis, like other oil-rich countries in the region, are trying to diversify their economy and see good opportunities in India. Moreover, if they had the capability of coming to Pakistan’s aid on the ground, they would not need its help for their own defence. However, Saudi Arabia has played a key role over the years in shoring up the Pakistani economy by supplying oil on credit and extending loans and deposits. An increase in this flow of Saudi investment in Pakistan’s military-industrial complex would be a matter of concern to us.

The defence agreement is yet another signal of Pakistan emerging slowly from the geopolitical tight spot in which it had found itself for over two decades because of its complex internal problems and terrorists with linkages to Pakistan surfacing all over the world. It has solid backing of China and is entering another phase of a transactional relationship with the US. Experience tells us that whenever Pakistan finds itself on a surer footing with its key international partners, it tends to be more adventurous towards us.

Finally, India will have to keep a close eye on the evolving situation and security ties in West Asia. It has developed multi-faceted relations, including defence cooperation, with all countries in the region. An obvious course is to strengthen these ties further to safeguard India’s interests.

Sharat Sabharwal is former High Commissioner to Pakistan.