Act II in Madhya Pradesh

Neerja Chowdhury

Senior political commentator

The exit of Jyotiraditya Scindia from the Congress is a seminal moment in the country’s democratic politics for a variety of reasons. It has put into place a new model of government formation, which goes beyond election mandates, and is being perfected by the BJP. (It was resorted to by the Congress in the past, though not with such efficiency.) It has made the anti-defection law brought in by Rajiv Gandhi in 1985 virtually redundant.

The idea behind the ‘new model’ is to induce/persuade a group of MLAs to resign from the ruling party, bring down the strength of the Assembly, thereby lowering the half-way mark. This would make it possible for the opposing side, particularly in cases where the electoral mandate was close, to win a trust vote. This happened in Karnataka last year and is unfolding in MP.

In Karnataka, the BJP emerged as the single largest party but short of a majority, the Congress moved in for the kill, offering CMship to HD Kumaraswamy of the smaller JD(S). But within months, the contradictions between the two parties had surfaced and 15 MLAs resigned with the coalition losing the trust vote that followed. This enabled the BJP to scrape through, installing BS Yediyurappa as CM again. When byelections were held, 12 of those who had resigned were reelected on the BJP ticket, giving comfort to Yediyurappa.

MP is following the same pattern. If the 22 Congress MLAs (led by Scindia) hold firm in their resolve not to go back to the Congress — though seven of them are believed to be in touch with Kamal Nath — or if 16 of them whose resignations have not been accepted by the Speaker, absent themselves from the Assembly when the trust vote takes place, the government will be in trouble, and we may well see Shivraj Chouhan being sworn in as the CM, like Yediyurappa, also for the fourth time.

The Kamal Nath government is teetering. The implications of the Congress losing another government, and that too in the heartland of India which it won in 2018 after 15 years in the wilderness, are far-reaching with their impact on the morale of party workers and leaders.

Scindia’s exit is significant, not because he had a pan-MP following, though he did command a support base in his region, and 23 elected in the Assembly elections in 2018 owed their loyalty to him, but because of the message it has sent to the party rank and file. If someone as well ‘connected’ as Jyotiraditya Scindia, enjoying proximity to Rahul Gandhi — and Rahul himself tweeted that Scindia was the only one who had access to his home at any time — saw no future for himself in the grand old party of India, what chance would ordinary mortals have?

While the septuagenarians and octogenarians in the party will continue stoically, because they have little option, those who still have 25-30 years of politics ahead of them will now increasingly see the shutters coming down, and many will start to look at greener pastures.

It is amazing that so much should have hinged on one Rajya Sabha nomination, which the Congress was not willing to promise Scindia, and the BJP gave him within minutes of his joining the party. The Congress could get two people elected to the Upper House from MP and it should have been easy enough to bring Scindia, along with Digvijaya Singh. The message to him was clear when the idea was floated, for a few days, that Priyanka Vadra might be given a Rajya Sabha ticket from the state!

After Kamal Nath became CM, and Scindia, unlike Sachin Pilot, refused to take over as number two, he wanted to instal his man as a deputy CM or as PCC chief. This was not acceptable to the Kamal Nath-Digvijaya team. Scindia himself could take over either of these positions, they are believed to have offered. They calculated that without the CM’s chair, Scindia would be more inclined to a role in Delhi.

Besides, the sons of both Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are emerging on the MP scene. Nakul Nath won the Lok Sabha poll and Jaivardhan Singh is part of the Kamal Nath government. It is hardly a secret that factionalism in the Congress in MP has been its undoing, not just now, but for years, depriving the party of power over the years.

And now, as a BJP MP, Scindia may possibly be given a berth in the Modi ministry, which will help him keep his workers by his side, power being a potent glue. On its part, the BJP gains because it has dealt a body blow to the Congress. It may get another government under its belt, and it may use Scindia’s presence to sideline his aunt Vasundhara Raje Scindia (in Rajasthan)!

What came as a surprise to many was the absence of any effort by the Congress high command to stop Scindia’s exit, which was being talked about openly for several months. A frail Sonia Gandhi left it to her managers, and they to the Kamal Nath-Digvijaya Singh duo. Rahul Gandhi held himself back. He has made it clear that unless he is given a free hand in the party to make decisions unfettered by the old guard, he will not take over as Congress president again, which his mother wants him to do. The drift continues. There may well be more exits from the party. And other states like MP?

We can well ask, what future the Indian National Congress has? What future democracy has in India? That all these shenanigans should go on while the country and the world are grappling with the coronavirus catastrophe which could threaten the lives and future of millions of people, at a time when it should have been all hands on deck, as is happening in some other countries, also bitterly divided — MP represents more than just another disappointment with our political leaders.

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