Af-Pak issue over Kabul river water simmers

Lt Gen PK Grover (retd)

Former State Information Commissioner, Punjab

IN the ever-evolving geopolitical scenarios, the sources of water, their control, use and conservation have emerged as significant power players, irrespective of the areas of influence being local, regional, national or international. In this context, the water dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the Kabul river has been simmering, though it is rarely noted as it is overshadowed by the political tensions and dispute over the Durand Line between the two nations. The problem could lead to widespread ramifications as no water agreement exists between the upper riparian Afghanistan and the lower riparian Pakistan, despite the two countries sharing nine big and small rivers.

Pakistan is ranked 14 in the list of the world's 17 'very high water risk' countries. Its water availability has decreased by nearly 80 per cent over the past seven decades. Pakistan's water woes are deep-rooted and of great concern. One of the causes is the country's rapid population growth. This has not just strained the limited water resources available, but also has implications for food security.

Inadequate water storage is another cause of the water scarcity, which has resulted in the loss of more than 120 BCM (billion cubic metres) of water during the floods of 2010, 2012, and 2014. The storage capacity of its biggest water reservoir is only nine per cent of the total average flow as compared to the global average storage capacity of 40 per cent.

Currently, 97 per cent of Pakistan's fresh water is used in agriculture, which accounts for 22 per cent of the country's GDP. Water resources are also being depleted due to inefficient agricultural practices, flood irrigation, a lack of hybrid seeding and inadequate water management.

Pakistan is also on the list of the world's 10 countries most susceptible to climate change. Changes in the monsoon patterns, melting glaciers, rising temperatures and the recurrence of floods and droughts show that the country is already confronting climate-related challenges to its water resources. In recent years, Pakistan has experienced a number of floods as well as long periods of drought.

The Indus river basin, Pakistan's main water source, is especially vulnerable to climate change. In Sindh province, a large number of farmers have fled to urban areas due to water shortage following a reduction of the flow in the Indus river. Given that snow- and ice-melt runoff now account for 50 to 80 per cent of the typical water flows in the basin, it will cause landslides, catastrophic flooding, dam breaks and soil erosion in the short term and drought as well as hunger in the long run.

A case in point is the most devastating floods ever being experienced by Pakistan currently, following excessive rains. Over 1,100 people have lost their lives and lakhs been displaced due to these floods.

On the other hand, the landlocked Afghanistan, Pakistan's western neighbour, is rich in water resources with a geography and topography that provide significant opportunities for their use and exploitation. Traditionally, the country has experienced good rainfall in certain areas, though the recent protracted drought has led to severe shortages in the country and neighbourhood. All of its neighbouring countries — Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, China and Pakistan — are dependent on Afghanistan’s water resources to a certain degree.

Afghanistan and Pakistan share an Indus river tributary: the Kabul river. Some 700 km long, the Kabul river starts in the Sanglakh Range of the Hindukush Mountains in Afghanistan and passes through the cities of Kabul and Jalalabad before flowing into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan, 25 km north of the Durand Line border crossing at Torkham and finally joining the Indus river near Attock in Pakistan. The major tributaries of Kabul include the Logar, Panjshir, Kunar, Alingar, Bara and Swat.

The Kabul river is a lifeline to both Afghanistan and Pakistan as it is a source of drinking water, irrigation and hydropower, providing livelihood to over 20 million people in the two countries. The annual flow in the river is about 19 BCM and since the river starts to rise about a month earlier than the Indus, its flows are significant for fulfilling the early rabi and late kharif (March-May) irrigation requirements of the canals in Pakistan.

To jumpstart it's lagging economy and ensure internal stability, Afghanistan recently proposed to improve its power and water infrastructures. Afghanistan suffers from a severe shortage of electricity, with only 28 per cent of the households connected to power supply systems. Dams built during 1950-1970 and rehabilitated recently produce less than 300 MW of electricity. Afghanistan imports 80 per cent of its electricity from its Central Asian neighbours.

But Afghanistan has the potential of producing 23,000 MW of electricity from hydropower. It has completed feasibility studies of more than 20 small- and medium-sized hydropower projects, including a dozen dams in the Kabul basin. It recently secured large amounts of funds for building the dams, based on the prospects of the restoration of peace and security. Significantly, Afghanistan is building 12 dams with a storage capacity of 4.7 MAF on the Kabul river. Some of these are supported by India.

This development has agitated the water-stressed Pakistan as this deficiency in water flow poses for Pakistan a serious challenge and, perhaps, emerges as a more important issue compared to the Indo-Pak water woes.

Pertinently, no agreement on water-sharing exists between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The water stress is likely to be further aggravated by climate change and global warming — the result of an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — that will affect temperature and rainfall, and hence river flows and water resources. Precipitation in the catchment areas of rivers and canals is likely to be reduced, once again adversely impacting water availability. In fact, a reduced water flow of the Kabul river in future may become Taliban's weapon against Pakistan in the absence of any consensus on water-sharing.

Over the years, Pakistan has tried to initiate talks on an agreement to share water. Pakistan wants Afghanistan to ensure an 'equitable' and 'reasonable' use of the river under the framework of the 1997 UN Convention on Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses. Pakistan and the World Bank have initiated discussions on a water treaty similar to the Indus Water Treaty.

But these initiatives have not been successful as Afghanistan has not reciprocated, predominately due to its continued non-acceptance of the Durand Line as the international border. Additionally, longstanding tensions over other land disputes and borderlines have impacted disputes over water and the Kabul river.

The situation in Pakistan is, therefore, very alarming. Pakistan realises that for Afghanistan, the Kabul river is far more than a tool of coercive diplomacy. For its economic well-being and development, Pakistan must not let water conflicts become the main issue of discord with Afghanistan.

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