America puts nuclear ball in Iran’s court

The American policy on Iran and, by extension, West Asia came under the spotlight last week when US President Donald Trump said he had warned Iran that “very bad things will happen” if Tehran failed to strike a nuclear deal. This threat comes against the backdrop of renewed violence in the region, with the US military launching airstrikes against Houthi rebels.

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Concurrently, the Israeli attacks on Gaza against Hamas have continued, with the death toll in Palestine crossing 50,000, even as hospitals and other civilian sites have been targeted. Israel also struck Beirut on March 28 — the first such attack since November last year when a fragile ceasefire had brought to an end the Israeli war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Trump missive to Tehran is the latest attempt by Washington to address the long-festering nuclear issue. The US President added: “I sent them a letter just recently, and I said: you have to make a decision, one way or the other...” And in keeping with his blow-hot, blow-cold style of issuing cryptic warnings, he cautioned: “I don’t want that to happen. My big preference — and I don’t say this through strength or weakness — my big preference is, we work it out with Iran. But if we don’t work it out, bad, bad things are going to happen to Iran.”

In May 2018, during his first term in office, President Trump had taken a unilateral decision to withdraw the US from the painstakingly negotiated JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) — also called the Iran ‘nuclear deal’ — that the UN Security Council’s five members and Germany (P5 plus 1) had reached during the second Obama term in 2015. The core of the agreement was that Iran would limit its nuclear programme and the uranium enrichment it had embarked upon in return for a gradual easing of the US-led sanctions that were crippling its economy.

In 2018, Trump asserted that “the heart of the Iran deal was a giant fiction: that a murderous regime desired only a peaceful nuclear energy programme” and that there was “definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie.” Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons has been an abiding US objective since the end of the Cold War in 1991.

However, the US-led war against Iraq in 2003 over fabricated charges that the Saddam Hussein regime was secretly acquiring nuclear weapons and missiles, and the tumultuous developments in West Asia over the past two decades, including the removal of the Gaddafi regime in Libya, have only increased Iran’s resolve to keep its nuclear programme alive. This has been an issue of major geopolitical and strategic discord globally and in West Asia, with Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE supporting the US position over containing Tehran.

The latest Trump initiative evoked a quick response from Tehran. Iran reiterated its long-held position that any talks with the US must be held within the framework of the 2015 JCPOA. This means that Washington must first return to the table — an unlikely exigency under the current circumstances. The Iranian position is that the proposed talks would be limited to the ‘nuclear file’ and that it would not enter into negotiations over its ballistic missile programme and the ties it has with regional allies. However, the fact that Iran has responded in writing to the Trump letter is indicative of a more malleable position and that it seeks lifting of the US sanctions.

The Trump administration has enhanced its trans-border strike capability in the region by positioning five B-2 bombers at the US military base in Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. In an embarrassing development, details of the American plan to attack Yemen were inadvertently shared by the top brass of the US national security team with a journalist.

The US military has intensified its strikes against Houthi rebels. This is being seen as part of Trump’s resolve to neutralise the immediate threat posed to global shipping and compel Iran to desist from supporting this group and come back to the negotiating table.

The Houthis began their attacks in the Red Sea on merchant ships bound for Israel in November 2023. This was a defiant and solitary show of support for the Palestine cause in the aftermath of the October 2023 Hamas terror attack and the war of reprisal that the Netanyahu government launched. Major shipping companies have chosen to avoid the Red Sea and the Suez Canal and are now routing vessels around South Africa.

It has been estimated that this disruption has added 0.7 percentage points globally to core goods’ inflation and 0.3 per cent to overall core inflation in 2024. In essence, the common citizen the world over is now paying a higher price for commodities and goods transported by sea.

Current developments in West Asia, including protests in Israel over the Netanyahu government’s policies, will not facilitate a reduction in violence. This spiral of bloodshed will cast a pall of gloom on the affected regions, even as the Islamic world prepares for Eid celebrations.

The slender hope for a cessation of regional hostilities appears even more remote now, despite the claims made by Trump when he began his second term that he would broker a ‘deal’ that would ensure an end to the indiscriminate and disproportionate Israeli attacks against terror groups supported by Iran.

The turmoil continues, and there is little light at the end of this bleak tunnel.