Anxiety in the saffron camp

Julio Ribeiro

PRIME Minister Narendra Modi has made us believe that he would retain power with a thumping mandate from the people. I actually perceived anxiety in his voice when he accused the Congress of preparing to take away the gold and silver jewellery collected over the years by his supporters and distribute it among the minorities — those who have large families, meaning the Muslims.

Most of the BJP MPs from the South will come from Karnataka, where the party has an established presence.

The Congress’ response to this statement was that he is ‘lying through his teeth’, a phrase usually used to denounce a palpable untruth. Nowhere in the Congress manifesto is it mentioned that the rulers whom the BJP ousted 10 years ago are going to go the Robin Hood way — robbing the rich to feed the poor. ‘The God That Failed’ (Communism) tried that out in Russia and East Europe in a big way. It only succeeded in ‘distributing’ poverty.

Modi’s assertion has hit the bull’s eye with a section of voters that has traditionally supported the saffron party. But it has also caused a flutter in the Congress dovecots. The Opposition does not have to worry that much. Despite what some experts prophesy, the truth is that there is ‘no wave’ this time. Modi’s charisma is fraying at the edges. He is struggling to stay in power. The very fact that he needs to hit his opponents below the belt is a clear indication that even retaining the 303 seats his party won in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be difficult.

Modi is using every weapon in his armour (and he is adept at finding new weapons almost every day) to achieve the difficult task of winning 400 seats (370 for the BJP and the rest for its allies). He is bound to win, but with a reduced margin. Today’s voter is not the ‘docile’ individual that we knew. He hears many voices, even contrarian ones, and his aspirations have risen exponentially. Modi’s oratory used to sway the masses. It sparked a ray of hope in their hearts. Not any longer.

That hope has been beaten black and blue. The reported promise of transferring Rs 15 lakh into each Indian’s bank account has wafted with the wind. Instead, 5 kg of rice or wheat, free of cost, to every ration card holder every month is what 60 per cent of the population gets. For the poorest of the poor, this barely enables them to keep body and soul together. For those willing to live at the subsistence level, oil, lentils and cooking gas are also required.

The tribal women of Palghar in Maharashtra made this clear to the BJP’s workers who distributed saris and shopping bags with Modi’s picture on them. They returned the goodies and asked for employment instead! They want to eat like their intended benefactors — nothing fancy but with sufficient calories.

There is no doubt that Modi is trying to improve the quality of life of India’s citizens (of course, those disqualified for citizenship by the CAA and the NRC will be excluded). For this to happen, he says he has to win a third term.

To do so, he is intent on neutralising Opposition leaders like Arvind Kejriwal. Third-rung leaders are summoned to New Delhi by the Enforcement Directorate to answer questions in a bid to stop them from canvassing during the Lok Sabha polls.

These below-the-belt tactics have not gone down well with the common man. In my city of Mumbai, even the unlettered have got the hang of such moves. The chatteratti, which had veered towards Modi in a big way, has also shown signs of disagreeing with his methods. Of late, Modi has been overplaying his hand. The aura that was built around him by his image consultants is slipping.

The inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya by him is being commented upon negatively by many. The gesture lacked any trace of humility. The dive into the sea off Dwarka was an unmitigated disaster.

In view of such publicity and mainly because of the persistent assault on the Opposition leaders in the run-up to the elections, Modi seems to be losing some of the goodwill he acquired over the past decade. He had eliminated the middlemen by making direct bank transfers of LPG subsidy and other welfare payments to below-poverty-line citizens and building homes for the poor under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana. The security scenario has improved under his reign, though China continues its bullying tactics because of its economic and military superiority.

I still feel that Modi will squeak through at the final count. He has worked very hard to make inroads in the South. He seems to have succeeded in Andhra Pradesh, where his party’s tie-up with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party is showing signs of paying dividends. The friction between YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and his sister YS Sharmila, who has cast in her lot with the Congress, is helping the BJP.

In the Tamil heartland, the BJP has lured my old service mate, K Annamalai, to spearhead the party’s entry into perennially hostile territory. That, too, looks to be paying. The BJP has left its pariah status in Tamil Nadu behind and become a party of interest. It may even open its account there, which will be quite an achievement.

In Kerala, it is hoping to tempt a slice of Christian voters to try out the saffron party. How these tentative voters reconcile their interests with Hindutva’s proclivities will be a matter of interest to political observers. Most BJP MPs from the South will come from Karnataka, where the party has an established presence, yet it will not get 25 (out of 28) Lok Sabha seats that it won in 2019. If it adds to its overall tally in the South, it will be marginal at best.

In Maharashtra, Bihar and even UP, the Opposition is likely to perform better than it did last time. In Maharashtra, the split in the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party will not help the BJP, as it had expected. In Bihar, voters have not taken kindly to CM Nitish Kumar’s continuous change of loyalties.

Gujarat will continue to favour the BJP. Where the party will gain will be in West Bengal. Hindutva politics has succeeded in loosening Mamata Banerjee’s hold. The Trinamool Congress will probably lose more seats to the BJP than it did in 2019.

Modi will get a third term, but with a more determined Opposition. That, hopefully, should stop him from keeping Opposition leaders in jail during poll time.

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