As Ukraine war drags on, US arms firms make a killing

Maroof Raza

Strategic Affairs Analyst

RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin made a candid admission at Sochi in June. He acknowledged that Moscow’s troops were experiencing a shortage of modern weapons and expressed hope that the country’s military industry would soon be able to meet their growing demand amid the Ukraine war. One of the critical reasons for the shortage is the global sanctions that have imposed curbs on the acquisition of sophisticated parts used in the production of a variety of weapons and their auxiliary systems. This has led to a shortfall of main battle tanks and ballistic missiles. Besides, using cruise missiles is a costly affair. Thus, the recent visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Russia attracted much attention. Apart from North Korea, Russia is getting help from Belarus, China and Iran in maintaining its ammunition stocks.

Manned and unmanned aircraft, missiles and electronic warfare equipment require modern, high-tech components such as microchips and ball bearings. Russia faces challenges in sourcing these components adequately from domestic suppliers and importing them — as it did before the present conflict — from North America and Europe due to the sanctions. Now, Russia is forced to replace imports of critical components with supplies from China or Malaysia, which do not match the quality standards of those from the West.

Another significant reason for Moscow’s urgent need to go shopping for ammunition from sources other than the usual ones is the extensive and disproportionate use of artillery by the Russian military.

Swarms of Shahed 136 drones have been supplied to Moscow from Iran, and these have wreaked havoc on Ukrainian cities. China has repeatedly denied sending military equipment to Russia since Moscow’s all-out invasion of its neighbouring country, even though the two nations signed a ‘no-limits’ partnership in February 2022. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, warned China earlier this year that there would be ‘consequences’ if Beijing were to provide materiel support to Russia for its conflict in Ukraine.

Russia can also fall back on its ammunition stocks and older weapon systems from the Cold War era. Battlefield losses and Western sanctions have left the Russian military in a state of decline, but Moscow will still have enough firepower to extend the war in Ukraine, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). It gives stark numbers of Russian military losses — almost 10,000 units of key equipment, such as tanks, trucks, artillery pieces and aerial drones, according to one estimate.

But it also says that Russia can utilise Cold War-era and older stocks on the frontlines to make up in numbers what it may have lost in terms of technology. “The quality of the Russian military in terms of advanced equipment will likely decline, at least over the near term,” the CSIS report says. “Moscow is under pressure to adapt, often turning to less-reliable and costlier suppliers and supply routes, lower-quality imports, or trying to reproduce Western components internally. This is likely hampering the rate and quality of Russian defence production,” the report says.

It cautions that Ukraine and its Western supporters should not expect a swift resolution to the hostilities due to these supply issues. Russia still retains numerical advantages over Ukraine, the report adds, because it has large inventories in reserve. “Russia’s military capabilities still greatly outnumber those of Ukraine on most indicators of air, land and naval power,” the report says.

“While an accurate count of Moscow’s current military stocks is not available publicly, it has been roughly estimated that, as of February 2023, the total number of aircraft at the Kremlin’s disposal has been 13-15 times more than Kyiv’s. Russia has nearly seven to eight times more tanks and four times more armoured fighting vehicles, while its naval fleet is 12-16 times larger than Ukraine’s,” it says. This numerical advantages will enable Moscow to run a war of attrition over the next year, throwing numbers on the battlefield until Ukraine, even with fewer losses, runs out of hardware, the report observes.

While Russia’s military-industrial complex is struggling, its US counterpart is reaping the benefits. This can be ascertained by a recent report published by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) titled, ‘US Security Assistance to Ukraine’. The United States has been a leading provider of security assistance to Ukraine, particularly since Russia launched its renewed and expanded invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. From 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, to August 22, 2023, the US has committed more than $46 billion in security assistance “to help Ukraine preserve its territorial integrity, secure its borders and improve interoperability with NATO”, according to the State Department.

With the deterioration of global security, particularly after the commencement of the Ukraine war, US arms sales have been on the rise. Last year, US defence companies reaped huge dividends selling their weapons and defence platforms to their clients in Asia, Europe and Africa. Latest data shows that 2022 saw an increase of $51.9 billion in the sale of weapons. Most of it is largely due to the Russia-Ukraine war, where the US is backing Ukraine.

Several European countries have started arming themselves as they perceive a threat from Russia. American defence companies are on a high. They have received new orders for military equipment as these nations strengthen their defences. As the data shows, the US sold military hardware, services and technical data to its clients worth $153.7 billion in 2022, up from $103.4 billion the year before. The State Department data claims that the increase in the sale of defence products is attributed to the crisis in Ukraine, where the US government has authorised massive supplies. The Ukraine war has also caused huge insecurity among European nations like Germany, Poland and Spain, which have started arming their defence forces, fearing the unintended consequences of this long-drawn-out war could very well spill over to their borders. 

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