Back in the game

Vivek Katju

Ex-secretary, Ministry of External Affairs

In more than seven decades, no American President’s inaugural address has ever struck such a starkly sombre note as did that of Joe Biden. Its constant call for unity to help “resolve the cascading crises of our era” and strong assertions of resolve to see the nation through “this dark winter” could not mask its despondency. To his credit, Biden did not gloss over the deep divisions that have currently split American society and polity down the middle; in fact, he acknowledged “the foes we face: anger, resentment, hatred, extremism, lawlessness, violence, disease, joblessness and hopelessness”.

This daunting list of negative national emotions based on fundamentally different national visions sharpened by the enormous human and economic toll of the pandemic would be a supremely difficult challenge for any new President. In Biden’s case, it will be manifold more so if Donald Trump continues to remain a viable political force, as he has threatened he would. How else can his words that he will be back “in some form” be interpreted? Indeed, if the Senate does not confirm his impeachment and rule that he is unfit to hold any office in the future, Trump will cast a long and deep shadow over the Biden presidency despite all the efforts of the liberal media and political establishment; for there would be a fair chance that he would aim for presidency in 2024.

Biden’s primary focus has necessarily got to be domestic. The difficulty is that even while this will be so, America simply cannot abandon its global role. If it does so, China would attempt to fill the void amidst elements of substantial turbulence in world order. The Biden administration would therefore have to simultaneously contain the raging pandemic which has impacted America the most, encourage economic growth and restore the traditional patterns of the exercise of influence and power abroad. The executive decisions that Biden took immediately on entering the Oval Office shows that his administration has begun work in that direction. In many cases, these decisions repealed those of Trump and restored the positions of the Democratic Party in both internal and external policy areas.

Biden’s first domestic task is to get Americans to take the pandemic seriously. While America has been more severely hit by it than any other country, its people have never shown sufficient serious intent and discipline to reduce its spread. Nothing illustrates this more than the controversies that have continued over months on the importance of wearing masks. Biden’s order that it would be compulsory to put on masks in federal buildings is a clear departure from Trump’s approaches. The response of the Trump faithful and other right-wing groups to this and the ramping up of the vaccine campaign would be early indications of their attitude to Biden’s appeal for unity in his inaugural address.

Another fundamental issue that will engage the Biden administration concerns race relations. There are deep anxieties in large sections of white communities about not only the changing racial landscape in population terms, but also in inter-racial power and affluence. Barack Obama and now Kamala Harris showcase the change in American political life but the financial and economic sector will more and more witness the ingress of non-white players and groups. The opportunities of the digital age are also inevitably leading to these changes. Biden has shown that America must embrace it to become truly multi-racial but that is not acceptable to many whites steeped in notions of white control of all the levers of power. This powder keg will not die out in the foreseeable future.

In the foreign policy area, Biden was expected to return America fully to the WHO and to rejoin the Paris Climate Change Accord. He has done so immediately on assuming office, signalling that America will revert to attempts to resume leadership on global issues. But, by now, the blatant ‘America first’ sentiment has gone deep not only among the fringe groups in that country; hence, a response to such swift abandoning of Trump’s approaches may invite a reaction. These are important issues in the Biden administration’s external agenda but they will be overshadowed by the most important issue—China.

During his confirmation hearings in the Senate, Lloyd Austin, Biden’s nominee as Defence Secretary, said that China’s goal was to be a dominant world power. In this, he was no doubt expressing the view held by the American establishment. The question is how Biden will handle China’s aggressive quest for dominance. Austin argued for a whole of government approach but significantly also said there could be American-Chinese cooperation where it was in America’s interest to go in that direction. For India, Biden’s approach to China and towards India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood will be of vital concern.

Those who will hold senior positions in the Biden administration have supported comprehensive cooperation with India. There is no need to suspect this intention but Indian decision-makers will have to ensure that the shadow of the areas in which America and China cooperate does not fall on India. India will also have to be wary of the Biden administration's apparent desire to go back to military-to-military cooperation with Pakistan, and as indicated in Austin’s testimony, its open acknowledgement of the importance of that country in addressing the Afghan issue.

With Democrats holding the presidency and both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Modi government will have to brace itself for interventions on human rights issues. It need not get overly fazed by these because they would not impact on India-America cooperation as a whole. However, they will give Indian opposition parties opportunities to embarrass the government. In any event, instead of shunning American liberal opinion, it would, especially now, be prudent for the government to engage it.

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