Bangladesh awaits a democratic dawn

DEMOCRACY has rarely survived and thrived in Bangladesh. Military coups, assassination of two Presidents (Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Ziaur Rahman), autocratic regimes, rigged elections — this small nation has seen it all during its 54-year history. Now, it finds itself at a crossroads yet again. A parliamentary election and a nationwide referendum are scheduled to be held on the same day in February next year. The referendum pertains to the July Charter, which envisages much-needed political reforms through constitutional amendments.

The charter owes its origin to the ‘student-people’ uprising in July-August 2024 that overthrew the repressive government led by Sheikh Hasina and forced her to take shelter in India. A brutal crackdown carried out on her orders claimed the lives of over 1,400 protesters and left hundreds of others maimed. No wonder the deposed Prime Minister is an integral part of the political discourse in the run-up to the elections. Last week, a special tribunal sentenced Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal to death on the charges of “crimes against humanity”. On Thursday, a Bangladesh court sentenced her to 21 years of imprisonment in three corruption cases.

Hasina-led Awami League ruled the country without a break from 2008 to 2024. The long reign was marked by impressive economic growth, even though increasing authoritarianism took its toll on democratic institutions and constitutional safeguards. The party has now been reduced to a bystander in view of suspension of its activities.

The top contender is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by ex-PM Khaleda Zia. The Begum’s indifferent health has prompted her London-based son Tarique Rahman to take charge of the party’s campaign. He appears prominently on BNP posters and hoardings, which also carry images of Zia and her late husband, ex-President Ziaur Rahman.

Differences between the interim rulers and the BNP are coming to light. Earlier this week, the party slammed the government for signing long-term deals with foreign companies to operate key ports. Tarique Rahman has asserted that an ‘unelected’ administration cannot determine the country’s future. The BNP has also accused Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus of violating the July Charter by going beyond the scope of earlier political consensus. Clearly, the BNP is already projecting itself as the next incumbent.

The BNP’s main rival is its long-term ally, the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is banking on religion to win over voters. Also in contention is the National Citizen Party, which was formed by students in February and aims to establish a viable third front. Students were at the forefront of the protests last year, but it is doubtful whether they can make a significant impact in the upcoming elections.

Amid the poll buzz, Bangladesh is rightly laying stress on international outreach, exemplified by the recent Bay of Bengal Conversation in Dhaka. This annual geopolitical forum showcases the host nation as a progressive player in the global scheme of things.

A key foreign stakeholder in Bangladeshi affairs is none other than India. The interim government has intensified pressure on New Delhi to hand over Hasina so that she can be brought to justice in Bangladesh. It appears that India is finally realising which way the wind is blowing in the neighbouring country. The Ministry of External Affairs has stated that India is examining the request for Hasina’s extradition and remains committed to Bangladesh’s stability and the well-being of its people.

It’s also important for India to rebuild ties with Bangladesh because Pakistan is out to exploit the situation created by the Delhi-Dhaka impasse. Pakistan is set to export 1,00,000 tonnes of rice to Bangladesh — a sign of the fast-improving trade relations between the two countries. During the Joint Economic Commission meeting held in Dhaka last month, the Pakistani government offered Bangladesh the use of the Karachi Port Trust to increase its trade with other regional countries, including Central Asian states and China. Direct flights between the two nations are scheduled to begin in December, while the engagement between their militaries is also growing.

The majority of the Bangladeshi citizens today were not even born when the 1971 War of Liberation gave birth to their nation. The genocide carried out by Pakistani troops, India’s military intervention and humanitarian support — these are chapters from the distant past for the voters at large. The 2024 uprising is the all-important epochal event for them; participants as well as witnesses see it as nothing less than ‘Second Independence’ for their country.

There is a lot that India has done in recent years to boost infrastructure development in Bangladesh. These gains must not be frittered away. Dhaka needs to be convinced that allying with a stable India is a much wiser option than siding with an unstable and unreliable Pakistan. The interim dispensation’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain said last week that Bangladesh would prioritise its national interest and regional stability rather than “pick sides”. However, Dhaka won’t find it easy to walk a tightrope in South Asia.

India, which is closely watching the developments in the neighbourhood, should be well prepared to engage with an elected government in Dhaka. Finding a way out of the Hasina tangle must be a top priority. At the same time, the importance of countering Pakistani propaganda cannot be overemphasised.

(This writer was invited to participate in the Bay of Bengal Conversation held in Dhaka from November 22 to 24)