Battling virus makes 2022 a daunting year
Trying to get a sense of what’s in store for the country in the coming year is proving to be extremely difficult in view of the unpredictable course that the pandemic has taken since early 2020.
Just when there was some confidence that the world had managed to get the better of the highly destructive Delta variant and that we could look forward to a period of normalcy, the Omicron variant, which spreads superfast, has appeared suddenly.
In time, scientists will develop a vaccine which will defeat this demon, but the question that arises is, what next? Surely, there will be another new variant down the road, which will plunge the world into another traumatic phase. In keeping with this see-saw progression, the stock markets started recovering and took wing in the latter part of this year, planting hope in the mind of investors. But then, Omicron struck and the markets crashed sharply.
The rapid change in sentiments is best illustrated by what Microsoft founder Bill Gates had to say. He was guardedly optimistic when he said: “I think the acute phase of the pandemic will come to a close some time in 2022…The Omicron variant is concerning…but the world is better prepared to tackle potentially bad variants than at any other point in the pandemic so far.” If that was guarded optimism, look what he said last week: “Just when it seemed like life would return to normal, we could be entering the worst part of the pandemic.”
There’s no doubt that there is light at the end of the tunnel, but the tunnel seems to be getting longer with serious obstacles appearing so often and the light at the end remaining as faint as ever. It is with this sense of foreboding that 2022 needs to be approached and an attempt made to find a few bright spots that seem to be hiding themselves as shyly as possible. The redeeming feature is that there are a few bright spots. One is that we are much better prepared healthcare facility-wise to tackle the sudden sharp rise in infection in terms of hospital beds, intensive-care wards, enough equipment. Doctors are by now familiar with the regimen to tackle a serious infection. And as the Omicron variant is spreading, its symptoms till now do not appear to be severe. Without seeking to sound over-confident, it seems we can take this infection in our stride.
The second bright spot is that we have learnt how to live with the pandemic with minimum disruption to daily life routine unlike the draconian lockdowns that marked official response to the first wave in 2020. Now, restrictions such as night curfew and ban on large gatherings can coexist with normal economic life, with only a few sectors, including hospitality, remaining severely impaired. As against this, the tech sector made up of social media, e-commerce and e-learning is experiencing rapid growth.
The third bright spot is the agricultural sector that seems to be the least affected, unlike manufacturing and services. In the countryside, the pressure of huge crowds and air-conditioned malls are absent, leaving the farmer in some peace to tend to his crops without fear of infection. As a result, a period of food shortage and high food prices seems unlikely, contrary to the rising prices of fast-moving consumer goods or the non-availability of enough new cars because of the shortage of semiconductors and myriad disruptions of the global supply chain.
Unfortunately, the positive list must end there. There need be no fear of a food shortage overall, but the critical question remains: will all sections of the population be able to get the food they need? The disruption in the functioning of small businesses continues and the ability of the self-employed at the bottom of the pyramid — say the rickshaw puller and the street hawker — to earn a living remains seriously affected. As the government seeks to keep the fiscal deficit under control and prevent petty fraud, too many of the poor have neither the paperwork such as the ration cards usable across the country, nor the means to buy ration to feed the family.
Payment of wages earned under the employment guarantee programme should never be in arrears and there should be enough work for all those who come forward to enlist themselves. Revenue spent on distributing to those who self-certify free foodgrains procured at the minimum support price and left to rot in public godowns cannot be inflationary. The productivity and value creation of a well-fed worker as opposed to an underfed one cannot be compared.
Distribution of free ration and running of public kitchens needs to become a bigger and well-organised programme. The record of state governments in running welfare programmes is highly varied. States where anganwadis and midday meal programmes don’t run well should be pilloried. Similarly, states where primary health centres are not adequately provided with staff and medicines, should be severely strictured.
Perhaps the biggest failing of the Centre remains its vaccination policy. The PM has announced booster doses for the aged, vulnerable and healthcare workers only after there was a nationwide clamour for these. The government was supposedly waiting for experts to give their view on boosters even as countries across the world went in for it. The likely reason is that there is inadequate supply of vaccines to take care of booster doses at a time when the chief of Serum Institute of India has publicly spoken of lack of orders from the government that could lead to idle capacity. The best way to make a success of 2022 is to ensure that the protective triad — wearing masks, avoiding crowds and all getting properly vaccinated — is strictly adhered to.
A more prompt and robust vaccination policy has to be the main weapon to fight the battle against the virus through a daunting 2022.
