BJP, Congress adopt contrasting stands on handling state leaders

THE templates of the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, are very different in the Hindi-belt states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where there is a direct contest between them in next month’s Assembly elections.

Advertisement

Going by the selection of candidates so far, it seems that the BJP is not relying on the traditional state leadership, such as two-term former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan or incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, who is serving his fourth term.

Every election for the BJP is now projected as being about Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while regional satraps have to take it on the chin and work according to the blueprint drawn up by the top brass. Senior party leaders and MPs have been picked by the high command to contest or monitor the state polls. This template was also on display in the Karnataka polls in May; former CM BS Yediyurappa was sidelined during the process of choosing candidates.

The BJP is willing to take such risks as it believes that the bigger goal is to win the 2024 General Election, for which the party campaign will obviously revolve around the Prime Minister. Besides, there is a gap of a few months between the announcement of the Assembly poll results of the five states and the Lok Sabha elections. New events are expected to engage the popular imagination by then — some planned, others unplanned. The inauguration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya is slated for January.

The Congress, in contrast, is relying on state leaders. There are two sitting chief ministers, Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh, both from the backward castes. Caste representation will come into play while finalising the candidates as the party has been harping on social justice and widening the ambit of reservation.

Also, both the BJP and Congress lists should be examined for gender representation after the recent passage of the women’s reservation Bill, to be applicable in a few years.

There are some contradictions between the positions taken by Rahul Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. In Madhya Pradesh, Kamal Nath is in charge and is working in tandem with another veteran, former Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh. Kamal Nath appears to have decided that soft Hindutva is essential in an age where the terms of engagement are defined by the BJP.

But the real backdrop to the poll is agrarian distress, economic woes of the people, anti-incumbency and complaints about corruption. It remains to be seen whether the BJP can turn the tide as Madhya Pradesh is one of the states in which the RSS has a strong organisational network.

In Rajasthan, the Congress is banking on welfare schemes and a popular chief minister who has launched a personality-based campaign. Yet, there is anti-incumbency against many MLAs and it is not yet clear if Rajasthan would be able to buck the trend of alternating between the BJP and the Congress.

A close examination of the state’s politics also reveals the importance of smaller parties in the event of a close result; the Congress is hopeful of tying up with such outfits. There is also the likelihood of many sitting MLAs being dropped.

The Congress seems well placed in Chhattisgarh, while the state BJP is once more being run from New Delhi. But here again there is the use of soft Hindutva by the Congress as the government is organising Hindu festivals and developing religious tourist sites in a region where Lord Rama and Sita are said to have stayed during their exile.

Tribals constitute 30 per cent of Chhattisgarh’s population, yet there is no conversation about political representation being given to this group.

Away from the Hindi belt, a significant poll-bound state is Telangana, where the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is not a part of the INDIA bloc. Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao is hoping for a scenario where none of the national parties will have the numbers to form the government and they will turn to the regional satraps.

But before that, the BRS has to ensure that it triumphs in the state where the Congress is showing sudden resurgence, even as the BJP appears to be losing momentum. The BRS is known for some very successful welfare schemes, but a challenge is emerging. This is one state where the Congress can do much better than the BJP in the national poll next year, while the BRS’ performance in 2024 would be influenced by the state result.

In Mizoram, power has traditionally shifted between the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Congress. A third force has risen in the state, the Zoram People’s Movement.

The state borders Manipur and one of the big issues for voters would be the handling of refugees that have poured in. The MNF has performed well on that front and the mayhem in the BJP-ruled Manipur could have an electoral impact on Mizoram. Small parties in the North-East usually end up making tie-ups, formal or informal, with the ruling party at the Centre.

The Congress has lost a lot of ground in the North-East. It has much at stake in these polls, from the Hindi heartland to the south and the extreme east.