BJP faces problem of plenty, Opposition losing ground

Radhika Ramaseshan

Senior Journalist

AS the pieces fall into place on the political chessboard in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, the developments are upending logic and expediency. The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc is up against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The saffron party has set itself a target of 370 Lok Sabha seats (and 400 for the NDA), going by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s declaration in Parliament. INDIA needs as many allies as it can mobilise to fortify its ranks against an overbearing party that determinedly tries to pulverise Opposition-ruled dispensations that lend heft to the coalition. Fiscal injustice by way of inadequate aid from the Centre even to deal with calamities (for instance, the Tamil Nadu floods) and the selective crackdown on ministers for alleged malfeasance are some of the complaints levelled against the NDA government to fuel the ‘Centre versus states’ debate.

On the other side stands the BJP, a behemoth characterised by a powerful leadership, a charismatic PM who purportedly bests his global peers in periodic rankings, a stranglehold over statutory institutions and a formidable party machinery. The BJP more than holds its own against a ragtag, rapidly dwindling Opposition coalition.

The supreme irony lies in the BJP’s unstinting efforts to court and co-opt as many regional forces as it possibly can in the NDA despite their roots in dynastic or identity politics, which is avowedly anathema to the party. In the last five years, the BJP lost its once-valued partners, such as the undivided Shiv Sena, the Janata Dal (United) and the Shiromani Akali Dal. The NDA’s ambit has widened now with the inclusion of the smaller parties, even as the BJP, through calculated manoeuvres, split the Sena in Maharashtra and appropriated a dominant section from the original leader, Uddhav Thackeray, as well as Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party. The faction headed by Pawar’s nephew Ajit is NDA property. The ownership of former legatees (Ajit) and an Uddhav confidant like Eknath Shinde of the breakaway Sena gave legitimacy to the post facto charges the BJP levelled against Pawar and Uddhav. The BJP got back the JD(U) in a dramatic coup that brought the downfall of a ‘secular’ coalition government and its return to power in Bihar with an allegedly discredited Nitish Kumar continuing at the helm. It has restarted a dialogue with the SAD to upstage the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab.

The most intriguing aspect of the BJP’s coalition push is wooing the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh, apparently to consolidate its gains in the state’s western region, which has never let down the BJP, even in bad spells. The idea is to hollow out the Opposition, which last June seemed earnest about raising a joint front to challenge the BJP, although the question of who would lead INDIA — the Congress or a provincial leader — remains unresolved.

INDIA’s leadership vacuum was significantly highlighted in last December after the BJP vanquished the Congress in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and re-established its supremacy over the Hindi heartland. Hobbled by the defeats, the Congress looks to the south for succour, with strong allies in Tamil Nadu and Kerala as crutches.

Undaunted by a relatively marginal presence in the south, the BJP went ahead and made common cause with the Janata Dal (Secular), virtually a private estate of the Deve Gowda clan, after its defeat in the Assembly polls. In Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party and its adversary, the YSR Congress Party, want to get on the BJP’s side, while in neighbouring Telangana, the leadership is undecided over tying up with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi.

In this lopsided landscape, the BJP faces a problem of plenty, with a cornucopia of allies in Bihar and UP, while INDIA stares at a drought after the exit of the JD(U) and important Congress leaders, the latest being former Maharashtra CM Ashok Chavan. The plenitude could potentially cause wrangles over seat-sharing in the NDA, but the BJP’s strategists have a proven knack for overcoming such hitches.

Why did things come to an unhappy pass for INDIA? The alliance’s predicament seemed predetermined from the inception because neither the Congress nor the regional constituents could define their equations. The Congress’ allies — the JD(U), Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party —- regarded themselves on a par with the grand old party. But Congress wanted to assume the stewardship without spelling it out in that many words. The state parties, on the other hand, couldn’t agree on a unified command. The proposal to appoint Nitish as the convener was opposed by the TMC and AAP because their leaders suspected that the post was a stepping stone to his projection as INDIA’s PM candidate. On his part, Rahul Gandhi never scotched the speculation that he was in the running for the PM’s job.

The Congress’ ambitions were vastly disproportionate to its ground strength. The Assembly election results announced in December last year effectively sealed its fate in view of reversals in three Hindi heartland states. Had the Congress swung two of the three states, it could have legitimately hoped to helm the INDIA bloc. The Telangana win was not good enough to recompense for the loss of power in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and the failure to reclaim MP.

Coalition-building has never been the Congress’ metier. When push came to shove and it did not secure a majority in the Lok Sabha, it reluctantly backed non-BJP coalitions, only to pull them down on a whim as though it were a sport. Rahul Gandhi fits into the tradition. It was public knowledge that Nitish was restless in INDIA and the RLD sought greener pastures. Rahul did not reach out to the leaders to find out why they were unhappy and what they wanted. He has also been indifferent to the departure of his party colleagues, even a close associate like Milind Deora. Until the party sheds its delusions of grandeur, there’s little hope for INDIA.

Join Whatsapp Channel of The Tribune for latest updates.

#BJP #Congress #Lok Sabha