Can Priyanka’s 40% idea spark a revolution?

Priyanka Gandhi’s announcement that the Congress will give 40 per cent tickets to women in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections is radical and has the potential to shift the discourse in Indian politics. True, the Congress is organisationally weak in the state and one should not imagine that it will suddenly be reborn and rise on the shoulders of women and defeat the BJP. The main opposition in Uttar Pradesh will be given by the Samajwadi Party, which has structural depth — the reason why it is attracting defectors from all parties and has begun tying up with small but significant parties built on the support of a specific caste leader.

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Yet, the Congress has begun a process that could mark its presence both in the state and outside the boundaries of UP, and potentially, also lay the groundwork for it to recover in time for the national polls in 2024.

If we do the math, the Congress promise implies that there will be over 160 women candidates out of 403 seats that the UP Assembly has. Just the process of finding these women and giving them tickets would set off a churning and add a new chemistry to what is otherwise an overwhelmingly male domain — full of history sheeters and dons — in the tough interiors of the Hindi heartland state.

Beyond the possible gains or losses at the state level, the Priyanka promise can be a catalyst for change in politics. For, women — half the population — make up just 14 per cent of the MPs in the current Lok Sabha. It is a dismal number given the fact that they have made strides in almost all professions.

Indeed, if we presume politics to be an agency for seeking rights and entitlements, then let us note that some of the most outstanding activists in India have been women.

The argument that there are just not enough women candidates is patently false today, given the fact that there has been reservation for women in panchayats and local bodies that extends from one-third to 50 per cent in some states. India has, therefore, at the ground level, created an entire army of women familiar with politics and public life. These are women who know how to work the system, but they have not been able to cross the threshold and male ceiling in the state assemblies and Parliament.

The big question, therefore, is whether Priyanka’s salvo will give a fresh lease of life to the Women’s Reservation Bill, introduced in 1996, that promised 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state assemblies. When the UPA was in power during the decade of the Manmohan Singh government, Sonia Gandhi supported the Bill and it was actually passed in the Rajya Sabha, but the Lok Sabha never voted on it because of the reservations of the overwhelmingly male political class.

The greatest opposition, interestingly, was articulated by some of the leaders of the Mandal-era parties in the Hindi belt, who were also allies of the UPA. The Bill proposed seats being reserved in rotation and, obviously, the leaders of these parties did not want to risk their bastions being reserved for women whom they possibly saw as unwinnable. It’s worth noting that one of the parties that refused to support the Bill in 2010 was led by a woman, the BSP’s Mayawati.

There have, however, been changes in public perceptions since then. In recent years, we have seen a considerable awareness of a distinct women’s constituency, most lucidly expressed in the state of West Bengal where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, also called Didi, won a third term earlier this year.

When the statistics of the verdict were analysed, outfits such as CSDS-Lokniti discovered a clear women’s constituency that did not replicate the voter choices of males. Among women voters, the TMC had a 13 per cent point lead over the closest rival, the BJP, and it was much higher than the six-point lead among men.

As a rooted woman politician, Mamata succeeded in both making women identify with her and targeting women with specific welfare schemes. Moreover, the TMC can also be credited with the 40 per cent idea as in the 2019 General Election the party had given 40 per cent tickets to women.

The late AIADMK chief and multiple-term chief minister of Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa, too, had created a women’s constituency. In 2016 — the last election she fought and won before her passing away in December that year — she had promised 50 per cent subsidy for women buying mopeds and scooters, among other schemes.

But beyond Amma, as Jayalalithaa was called, and Didi, there have also been male politicians who have got support from women for specific policies. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, for instance, is believed to have carved a women’s constituency for his prohibition policy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had women’s support for schemes such as Ujjwala that distributes LPG connections to women below the poverty line.

Ideas have wings. For instance, Jayalalithaa was famous for her Amma canteens that distributed clean wholesome food for minimal prices. In Bengal earlier this year, I noted the presence of Didi canteens that were clearly a version of the Tamil Nadu idea.

Similarly, Priyanka’s idea obviously comes from noting the existence of a women’s constituency and the gap in their representation. It can certainly snowball into something that works for the greater public good.

But questions will indeed be posed to her. First, unlike Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalithaa, Priyanka is not the chief minister of a state but a dynast of a legacy party who has yet to make her mark in politics. There are contradictions, too, and she could be asked why the 40 per cent idea could not be extended to other states where the Congress is in power, such as Punjab, where the party has witnessed recent upheavals. It’s also rather obvious to note that in UP, where the Congress stands without a specific caste base of its own, it needs a great idea to even mark its presence in what will be a viciously fought election.

But the basic onus of this idea clicking on the ground and compelling other parties to also pitchfork more women into politics will be on Priyanka herself. She must walk the talk now and find over 160 women to contest in Uttar Pradesh and it would help each of them if she herself bites the bullet by contesting the elections. The big idea has come. Now, the consistent hard work must begin.