Change of heart in heartland

Neerja Chowdhury

Senior Political Commentator

Who could have thought that Rakesh Tikait would become the ‘chehra’ of the farmers’ movement that has been going on for the last six months? Or that his tears would bring thousands out of their homes to sit by his side to safeguard the ‘izzat’ of the community and the honour of kisans?

Rakesh Tikait was considered a weak link in the chain of farmers groups protesting for the repeal of the farm laws. People in west UP used to say that he was no patch on his father, Mahendra Singh Tikait, who had brought Delhi virtually to its knees in 1988 and done it without aligning with any party. Visits to his village Sisauli in those days revealed the respect the senior Tikait commanded among the farming community, and the easy access everyone had to him. After he died in 2011, his older son Naresh took over the reins of the organisation and Rakesh became the spokesman for the Bharatiya Kisan Manch.

The farmers’ stir has weakened the BJP in Punjab, dented it in Haryana, and damaged it in western UP. It is not good news for the party because elections are due in UP and Punjab in a year’s time.

Rakesh Tikait’s efforts to get into politics did not succeed. He was close to the BJP, in particular to Rajnath Singh. After the clashes between Jats and Muslims in Muzaffarnagar, he organised a mahapanchayat there in 2013, which deepened the divide between the two communities. While he helped the BJP, he contested on the Ajit Singh-headed RLD’s ticket in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. He lost, as did the other RLD candidates, during the Modi wave. Again, in 2019 he helped the BJP, and enabled the win of several candidates.

But today, despite his earlier proximity to the BJP, it would be more difficult for him to do business with the government, even if he wanted to, because of the growing anger among the Jats towards the BJP — unless he manages to deliver something that the farmers consider ‘honourable’. If a tough farmer like Tikait had been reduced to such helplessness, it was, the Jats felt, an ‘aar paar ki ladaai’. Tikait has vowed to sit at Delhi’s border till October, and daily families are joining him from the hinterland.

Today, Jatland is in ferment. The Jats of western UP, who had gravitated to the BJP in the last decade, are turning away from it. Families who had become saffronised in 2013 are today vowing not be taken in by ‘anti-Pakistan or anti-Muslim propaganda’ of the BJP ‘next time’. They openly talk about having been ‘misled’.

The Jats’ ghar wapsi to the RLD may have begun.

The other significant development is the cautious rapprochement that has begun between the Muslims and the Jats estranged by the Muzaffarnagar violence. The Muslim kisans who had left the BKU to form their own organisation are reaching out to the Tikaits again, and the Jats to them. The Jat-Muslim combination was the keystone of Chaudhury Charan Singh’s politics. He included the OBCs in this coalition, around a larger kisan identity, installing non-Congress governments from Punjab to Bihar in 1967. The BJP may feel it can ride the anger of the Jats. The Jats are not numerically large, unless other communities join hands with them. It is early days yet, but RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary has already reached out to Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, exploring the possibility of an alliance in the 2022 UP elections, which could give them electoral advantage in western and central UP.

Mayawati is too unpredictable, and from all accounts, may take a position which would go to help the BJP. Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad’s reach is limited. The Jats of western UP have had a ripple effect in Haryana. Though farmers from Haryana had joined their fellow kisans from Punjab in the protest on the Delhi border, Tikait’s tears widened and intensified their involvement.

But unlike in western UP, where the RLD is openly participating in the mahapanchayats, Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been active behind the scenes. He is clearly seen as the tallest Jat leader today in Haryana, and a likely beneficiary of the farmers’ unhappiness with the BJP. Dushyant Chautala has lost ground by continuing in government. Hooda does not want the fight to become a Jat versus non-Jat battle, which could go to the BJP’s advantage. He knows that along with Jats, he will also have to retain the support of the non-Jats. And he would want to be given a free hand in the state by his party bosses before he reveals his cards.

Slowly, the Gujjars and Meenas are coming on board. Sachin Pilot held two huge mahapanchayats in Dausa and Bharatpur, and two more for Rahul Gandhi. A Gujjar himself, he seized the initiative to galvanise the farmers, which no one else was doing in Rajasthan.

Individual leaders apart, as a party, the Congress is only piggybacking the protests. Regional leaders — like Jayant Chaudhary and Akhilesh Yadav — are wary of tying up with the Congress. They have too little to gain and too much to lose — as happened in Bihar, where the Congress insisted on contesting from 70 seats and won only 19.

‘Mahapanchayat’ has become a new tool for political mobilisation. It enables many groups to come together at the ground level under the umbrella of the kisan, without formalising unity. The farmers’ protests have in some way catalysed the unhappiness that had been building up in many groups against the ruling party.

It is early days to assess the political impact of the farmers’ stir. It has weakened the BJP in Punjab, dented it in Haryana, and damaged it in western UP. That is not good news for the party because elections are due in UP and Punjab in a year’s time.

At this stage, what can be said with certainty is this: A churning is underway in India’s heartland and it is against the BJP. 

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