Changing dynamics in South Asia keep India on toes

THE unrest in Bangladesh, where amorphous forces are coming together to challenge the Awami League government, is a matter of concern for India. Since 2009, with Sheikh Hasina at the helm, Bangladesh’s relations with India have improved significantly.
But instability in Bangladesh can be a tipping point in India’s neighbourhood. SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is in deep freeze. And the same is the case with India’s relationship with Pakistan, whose efforts to cause disturbances in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir continue unabated. Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, India’s diplomatic relations with Afghanistan have not been raised to a level where they are tantamount to a recognition of the regime.
With the emergence of President Mohamed Muizzu in the Maldives and his victory in the parliamentary elections, India has to live with his administration despite its anti-India stance.
A common thread running through these countries is the China factor. Beijing tends to support their regimes and stoke anti-India sentiments. As a result, India has been working with countries on the Bay of Bengal coast and trying to strengthen regional cooperation, particularly through BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). Headquartered in Bangladesh, BIMSTEC is now a bigger responsibility for India. Recently, there was a change of government in Nepal, a BIMSTEC country. The minority Maoists are out, and the Nepali Congress is in power, which should be considered a slightly positive gain for India.
However, KP Sharma Oli’s return as the Prime Minister blunts the advantage of the Maoists’ ouster, as Oli is known to be anti-India. He is one of those neighbourhood politicians who like to play the China card against India.
Further, India has paid a heavy price for providing relief and debt settlement solutions to keep Sri Lanka afloat. President Ranil Wickremesinghe is well-disposed towards India. However, his United National Party is in a minority, having only one seat in Parliament and living on the largesse of a divided ruling class. A presidential election is due in September. While Wickremesinghe remains the most plausible candidate, which party will back him and whose candidate will win remains open to question. He needs to marshal a set of political parties behind him which will also possibly win a majority in the parliamentary elections that will follow. Otherwise, he will again be a President with a Parliament not beholden to him. Some parties in Sri Lanka also play the anti-India card and use China to foment such sentiments. Economic and cultural largesse offered in times of distress act as a soothing balm in these countries. But when elections come, anti-India sentiments can help a party draw more votes than it would get if the nation has friendly ties with New Delhi.
Another country in India’s neighbourhood, Myanmar, is also in dire straits. The situation has only worsened since the military coup. India has kept up a delicate balancing act to safeguard its security by engaging with the junta while also maintaining partial ties with the democratic forces.
ASEAN is divided on how to deal with Myanmar. Among the ASEAN members that would rather engage with Myanmar than isolate it are Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. India has engaged with them. But for India, Myanmar is more of a neighbourhood problem and less of an ASEAN issue. Therefore, there is a perception in the region that Bangladesh has been our most stable and friendly neighbour.
Dhaka has provided Beijing with many opportunities for the supply of defence equipment, economic engagement and infrastructure-building. But Bangladesh has taken the trouble to ensure that its engagement with China does not create security concerns for India. Further, Bangladesh has given India a level playing field to the extent that it is the largest recipient of Indian credit lines, and several infrastructure projects are in progress there.
For many years, India thought of Myanmar as the route of connectivity with the North-East. That is why the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the trilateral highway project were launched. At that time, concerns over Bangladeshi instability and its hostile attitude towards India made New Delhi look at Myanmar as the bridge to the North-East. Besides, Myanmar’s domestic situation has not helped matters. And since 2009, India-Bangladesh relations have gone from strength to strength. Therefore, Bangladesh has emerged as the bridge with the North-East in recent years, particularly since the conditions in Myanmar are not conducive to the completion of ongoing infrastructure projects. If the situation worsens in Bangladesh, India will have reasons to worry.
The congruence of Pakistani and Chinese interests in supporting a non-Awami League government, which is more open to them, is evident. Hasina had cut short her recent visit to China for unspecified reasons. Perhaps she was not fully satisfied with what the Chinese were able to offer. Of late, she has been more receptive to infrastructure support from Japan and India.
Further, Hasina has drawn America’s ire since the Americans have alleged that the elections in Bangladesh were not free and fair. The Americans have the luxury of viewing South Asia through a moralistic prism, whereas, for India, it is a strategic call. This tests the limitations of the India-US partnership.
Like in Nepal, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, India is playing a low-key role in Bangladesh, trying to engage all parties and to be seen as supportive of the country rather than a particular party. But when a certain party, like the one in Bangladesh, stays in power for a long time, ties with the country often come to be seen as an engagement with that ruling party. Therefore, India needs to diversify its engagement with other political parties and emerging interest groups that seem to be calling the shots. India does not want to be seen as interfering in the internal affairs of its neighbours. But then, these affairs should also be better handled and not allowed to become platforms for anti-India tirades.
The challenge for India comes shortly after it hosted a BIMSTEC retreat in order to foster regional cooperation. There will be testing times for Indian diplomacy in the neighbourhood in the next few months.