Confusion even after introspection in Cong

Aditi Tandon

Chief of Bureau

In terminal electoral decline, the Congress just concluded its fourth introspection meet in 24 years, promising positive change. The problem is that the promise of revival is old and unmet.

Much like Pachmarhi (1998), Shimla (2003) and Jaipur (2013), the Udaipur Nav Sankalp Declaration pledges reforms to arrest the party’s slide. It speaks of the AICC overhaul through 50% reservation to leaders under 50 years; one post to one person; fixed five-year tenure for office-bearers; a new communication strategy to rebuild lost touch with the masses; and ‘one ticket, one family’ formula with exceptions to benefit Gandhis, among others.

The party has, however, invoked the Congress Constitution’s “no fixed term for party president” provision to exempt Sonia Gandhi from the five-year rule. This even as another AICC constitutional provision of a parliamentary board continues to be ignored, with the Udaipur Declaration also steering clear of it despite the G-23’s call to revive the group.

While the credibility of reforms that the Congress has promised will be tested over the coming days, participants at the Shivir said the conclave mainly served as a vent after recent party losses in nine states and partially boosted its sagging morale. They, however, acknowledged that any declaration was only as good as its implementation. The Congress urge of reclaiming the centrist space, expressed at Udaipur, resonated in Pachmarhi also, alongside the promise to represent social groups better in the AICC. The desire to harness new technologies for sharper public communication came up at Jaipur and resurfaced in Udaipur.

That said, the Congress party's principal challenges will stem from three broad positions its Nav Sankalp pledge takes.

First is the Congress’ return to the Pachmarhi line of “need-based alliances” as against the Shimla Declaration’s firm commitment to electoral coalitions for keeping the BJP at bay.

Rahul Gandhi’s remarks that the Congress alone can defeat the ruling dispensation because regional parties were ideologically bereft and caste-ridden are fraught with dangers and put a question mark even on Sonia Gandhi’s 2004 UPA experiment whereby the Congress aligned with 19 parties and returned to power after eight years. Did regional forces constituting the UPA “lack ideology”; “were they caste-based,” are the questions Rahul will be asked. His remarks are also bound to antagonise regional parties, including the TMC, whose chief Mamata Banerjee recently questioned the very existence of the UPA and said regional forces alone could counter the BJP. Rahul’s line also misses the point that on the eve of Shimla Declaration, the Congress had 15 chief ministers unlike two (Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh) it has today.

Second is the Congress’ push to identity politics through support to myriad quotas for social groups to counter the BJP’s Hindu identity consolidation. Most leaders in Udaipur admitted that the BJP had managed to box the Congress into a minority appeasement force and no reasonable discussion on the prevailing economic, job and social scenarios was possible till the party corrected that perception.

The Udaipur Declaration sees the Congress re-dedicate itself to the Gandhi-Nehru “Bharatiyata” pitching Indian nationalism against the “BJP’s pseudo- nationalism”, but in the same breath, supports caste census, quota within quota under the Women’s Reservation Bill and debates on SC, ST, OBC reservation in private jobs; 50% quota to the OBCs in state assemblies and the Parliament and 50% positions to weaker sections in the AICC. These two positions — a pledge of all-inclusive Congress and a desire of social fragmentation through quotas — could prove counterproductive.

Third is the Congress’ decision to avoid playing on the BJP’s pitch of polarisation as laid out through issues like the Hijab and Gyanvapi mosque survey, where the ruling party continues to force others to take positions. Here, the Congress sees mass contact, especially with the youth on matters of economic decline, joblessness, polarisation and rising inflation as a feasible counter narrative. The party’s “Bharat Jodo”’ call also fits into this construct. This strategy, the Congress believes, will also help it offset the challenge of “BJP’s control over mass and social media”.

Recent history however shows that populist agendas invariably overwhelm government performance and livelihood issues at the hustings. Why else would the Congress lose the 1996 General Election despite the then Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao ushering bold economic liberalisation to stabilise the Indian economy that was in free fall. Yet, from 232 Lok Sabha seats in 1991 to 140 in 1996, the Congress lost nearly 42.6% of its Lower House strength as its vote share plummeted from 36.5% to 28.80% — an even greater loss since 1989 when the party’s LS vote percentage was 39.5. Surveys later revealed that only 19% of the electorate had heard of economic reforms. Liberalisation, a major milestone in India’s journey, was an election non-issue. It was Muslim alienation post the Babri Masjid demolition that hit the Congress prospects. The 1996 results marked the beginning of post-Congress polity with the BJP surfacing as an alternative and a maiden post poll alliance of state-based parties forming the United Front government in 1996. Regional forces have since remained relevant in some form.

The Congress’ fortunes meanwhile remained shaky. The party won 141 seats with 25.82% votes in 1998, 114 seats with 28.30% votes in 1999, 145 seats with 26.53% votes in 2004; 206 seats with 28.55% votes in 2009; 44 seats and 19.3% votes in 2014 and 52 seats with 19.5% share in 2019. In 2014, the BJP won nearly 88% seats in direct contest with the Congress, improving the proportion to 92% in 2019. The party’s best recent performance was in fact in alliance with other forces under the UPA, which is non-existent today.

It now remains to be seen how Rahul, likely to assume Congress presidency by August end once internal party polls conclude, will ensure election wins for the party after snubbing the regional forces. The strength of Congress’ “unite India call” at Udaipur will also be tested during 12 state polls due until 2024 General Election.

Equally, the Congress would need to present to the youth an alternative vision of itself and the country to genuinely appeal to them. Consistent exodus of young leaders from the party, Gujarat’s Hardik Patel being the latest, shows that promising reservations in AICC posts alone won’t impress the young.

The gravest challenge the party faces is however ideological. Having suffered its first major setback due to Muslim alienation in 1996, the Congress now, ironically, struggles to drop the pro minority tag linked to most of its recent poll losses.

How the 137-year-old party will reclaim its centrist space — the objective of all introspection declarations — is the question.

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