Congress back on track in Punjab as AAP faces discontent

THE outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Punjab has raised many questions about the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The party won just three seats out of 13, falling well short of the clean sweep predicted by Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. The verdict has rocked AAP just two years after it registered a landslide victory in the Assembly elections, winning 92 seats in the 117-member House.

AAP’s vote share fell drastically to 26.02 per cent from 42 per cent in 2022. This indicates a surge in frustration and disappointment of the masses with the ruling party and Mann’s leadership.

The party largely failed to address key issues such as the agrarian unrest, drug trade, law and order, and corruption. Endemic factionalism, organisational weaknesses, dominance of the Delhi-based top brass and ideological bankruptcy have seemingly put AAP on a perilous path in a short period of time. The victory of two independent radical candidates is a manifestation of these unresolved issues.

This benefited the Congress, which finished on top with seven LS seats, thus recovering from the rout it had suffered in the 2022 Assembly polls. The Congress’ vote share (26.3 per cent) was, however, only slightly better than that of AAP this time.

The verdict of the Punjab electorate in favour of the Congress was against the broad national trend. This is not a new phenomenon as the party had won eight seats in the 2019 elections amid a Modi wave in the country. In the just-concluded elections, where there was no noticeable wave, Punjab’s ‘exceptionalism’ was very much on display. This was the only state in north India where the BJP drew a blank, even though Hindus account for around 40 per cent of the border state’s population. During his recent rallies in Punjab, the Prime Minister focused on Sikh issues, such as the 1984 riots and the Kartarpur corridor. However, this narrative did not receive much attention in the state. The party recorded a vote share of 18.56 per cent; five of its 13 candidates lost their deposits. The strong opposition to BJP candidates and other leaders by farmers’ organisations during campaigning sealed the party’s fate. Incidentally, the BJP had won two seats out of the three it contested in the 2019 parliamentary polls in the state.

A significant development in the 2024 election was the rejection of the BJP’s agenda by the state’s voters. The party tried to connect with Dalits and urban Hindus, but failed to a great extent. The BJP, which had been a junior ally of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) for long, went solo this time after talks with the one-time partner over seat-sharing proved inconclusive.

In recent years, the BJP has neither succeeded in broadening its traditional urban upper-caste voter base nor has been able to raise a tall state-level leader. Its strategy has been to win over Congress leaders. It does not qualify as a winnable party on its own despite having had a long-term presence in the state right from the days of its precursor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh.

As for the SAD, it suffered yet another electoral rout, winning only one Lok Sabha seat — its traditional bastion, Bathinda. The party had pulled out of the BJP-led NDA in 2021 over the three controversial ‘pro-corporate’ agriculture laws after having drawn the farmers’ wrath by initially supporting the legislation.

The leadership crisis in the party and its 10-year ‘misrule’ in the state (2007-17) are among the factors responsible for the loss of its core support in the state. The party also significantly lost the support of its key vote bank, the Jat Sikh community. There is a question mark over the leadership of Sukhbir Badal, especially after the demise of his father, former CM Parkash Singh Badal.

It was an election where the same pressing issues — farmers’ distress, drug menace, lack of jobs, large-scale migration of the youth to Western countries, industries shifting to neighbouring states, corruption, depleting water table, lack of development, and law and order — were raised by Opposition parties, but they hardly received any positive response from the state and Central governments.

The election campaign was lacklustre, going by the generally low participation at poll meetings and rallies.

The overall apathy was also reflected in the lower turnout, which was surprising as Punjab is known for recording a consistently higher turnout than the national average, whether it is the Lok Sabha or Assembly elections. As compared to the national average, Punjab’s turnout was about three percentage points lower this time. There was 62.8 per cent polling this time, as against 65.77 per cent in 2019 and 70.6 per cent in 2014.

The field was unusually wide open — in the fray were SAD, BJP, Congress, AAP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). The entry and huge victory of two radical candidates — Amritpal Singh and Sarabjeet Singh Khalsa from Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot, respectively, — not only made these elections very interesting but also posed a tough challenge to mainstream political parties. Their wins will have far-reaching consequences for Punjab.

Though the BSP put up its candidates from all parliamentary seats in Punjab, it failed to make its presence felt despite the fact that Dalits account for one-third of the state’s population.

At the end of the day, the Congress was the biggest gainer, winning seven seats, though the odds were against it as most of its senior leaders had defected to the BJP and other parties. Voters have sent out the message that they are banking on the Congress to raise the state’s issues in the Lok Sabha and work towards resolving them on priority.