Crimes tribunal verdict & Dhaka’s political crossroads

THE wheel has come full circle across India's eastern border after 44 years. Bangladesh is a powder keg. Violence on a scale seen last year can only be averted this week in the aftermath of an International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) verdict against deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina if the army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, uses an iron hand camouflaged in velvet gloves. The General, a Hasina-appointee who is related to the ousted PM through marriage, has the power to prevent the ICT fallout from getting out of hand.

Hasina outlined what amounts to her future manifesto in her first article since exile, published in The Week two weeks ago. The article and an interview blitz from an undisclosed location are precursors to Bangladesh's 1981 history repeating itself, albeit with some differences.

The Hasina-led Awami League has opened offices in Kolkata and Delhi, according to the Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), which has said that permission by India to open these offices is "an unambiguous affront against the people and State of Bangladesh. This risks upholding the good-neighbourly relations with India." The MFA has demanded the "immediate closure" of these offices. In a cleverly worded statement in New Delhi, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal responded that it is "not aware of any anti-Bangladesh activities by purported members of the Awami League...that is contrary to Indian law."

The difference between 1981 and now is that Hasina is not about to return home. Four decades ago, three months after Hasina was elected President of the Awami League, she went back to Bangladesh from exile in India. Military ruler-turned-President Ziaur Rehman allowed her to return, safe in the knowledge that Hasina was under-aged to contest any eventuality of a presidential poll in the then chronically unstable country. At that time, under the Bangladesh Constitution, 35 was the minimum age to be a presidential candidate. There were other limitations too. It was only in 1986, after having been in and out of jails or house arrests, that Hasina was elected leader of the opposition.

The difference between Hasina's 1981 triumphant return home and now is that Rehman and his successor once-removed, General HM Ershad, were largely benevolent dictators. They were not bloodthirsty murderers like gang leaders with political base, who are now roaming Bangladesh committing unspeakable atrocities.

A comparison of newspaper front pages in Dhaka today with their archives in the early-to-mid-1980s makes a convincing case that Hasina will face her father's fate if she left India now and went back home. Besides, Hasina no longer has a "local guardian" in her exile, like former President Pranab Mukherjee, who understood Bangladesh and empathised with India's partitioned eastern neighbour with a common language, culture, cuisine and much more in daily life.

After the ICT verdict, India has two options, broadly speaking. One is the Narasimha Rao way, the second the Pranab Mukherjee way. Almost eight years of experience as External Affairs Minister convinced the late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao that it was impossible for India to do anything worthwhile with a perennially volatile Bangladesh. Mukherjee's convictions were the exact opposite. When Rao made Mukherjee External Affairs Minister in 1995, the latter expressed his desire to make Bangladesh a diplomatic priority. Mukherjee told me in 2013 after his first visit to his wife Suvra's home in Bhadrabila village of Bangladesh — 56 years after their marriage — that Rao shrugged and said Mukherjee could try. Unfortunately, Rao's government completed its tenure 15 months later. Mukherjee had to wait another 10 years before he was made External Affairs Minister again to take up the threads of his Dhaka mission. He made progress in the next three years, although Bangladesh had five PMs in this period.

An important new element with domestic ramifications in Bangladesh is Donald Trump. The US President has mostly ignored Dhaka since his second assumption of office. That may change. Two weeks ago, an agreement was signed in Dhaka to quadruple American soybean exports to Bangladesh this year from last year's figure of $20 million. Overall, the aim was to export $1 billion worth of US farm goods this year, said Tracey Ann Jacobson, interim head of the US embassy in Dhaka, at the signing ceremony. Bangladesh is an agricultural country, but farm imports from the US were not a red line for it during the talks, unlike for India. The Trump administration reduced tariffs on Bangladesh's exports to the US by 17 per cent from what the President proposed, pegging it at 20 per cent. Bangladesh has an apparel industry with an export turnover of $40 billion. The head of its interim government, Muhammad Yunus, described the tariff reduction as a "decisive diplomatic victory."

In September, the US and Bangladesh engaged in Exercise Pacific Angel 25 with a token presence from the Sri Lankan air force as well. US interest in the exercise was heightened when Bangladesh agreed to hold it near Myanmar's restive Rakhine province. It has far-reaching strategic implications.

Trump's lack of interest in Bangladesh affairs led fervently Hindu Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), trying to fill the strategic vacuum. From Indian soil in March, Gabbard said about Bangladesh's turmoil: "The long-time unfortunate persecution, killing and abuse of religious minorities like Hindus, Buddhists, Christians and others has been a major area of concern for the US government." Radicalised Bangladeshis protested. But Yunus displayed diplomatic acumen by writing to Gabbard: "Your visit to Bangladesh will give you the opportunity to visit every nook and corner of our country to see for yourself how our different communities live side by side in peace and harmony." She is yet to respond.

The US is the world's largest grower of soybean and corn. China weaponised its soybean imports during tariff talks with the US. Yunus is now doing the same by quadrupling American soybean imports, although Bangladesh has a smaller economy. If Yunus employs lobbyists in Washington, who can whisper in Trump's ears the soybean imports gesture, the tide may turn in favour of Bangladesh, notwithstanding the ICT verdict.