Data and diplomacy

Shyam Saran

Former Foreign Secretary and Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research

Data is often referred to as the ‘oil’ of the 21st century. The vast volume of data continually being generated is described as Big Data. Oil needs to be refined before yielding products of economic value. Similarly, data is a resource which must be processed to yield information of value. Information is ‘processed, organised and structured data’. Analysis of information yields patterns, which may be defined as a ‘regularity in the world, a design repletion in a predictable manner’. And patterns, in turn, lead to insights about the phenomenon under study. From insights comes knowledge which is the end product of the greatest value.

Diplomats need to acquire familiarity with data science and data scientists with diplomacy.

Diplomacy is the conduct of foreign policy. If policy is the weapon, then diplomacy is its delivery system. Just as data may be the weapon, digital devices and digital communications, which the devices enable, may be considered the delivery system. While we may speak of data diplomacy, in reality Big Data impacts both foreign policy formulation as well as its execution in the form of diplomacy. Data diplomacy in reality includes both foreign policy formulation and execution.

Diplomats and policy-makers have always been engaged in information gathering, management and analysis. Earlier, there was paucity of information, in particular good quality information, so considerable time had to be spent in locating reliable sources of information, and then, in subjecting the information gathered to careful analysis. What is different in our digital era is the abundance of information and the speed with which it is generated. There is the critical challenge in confirming its veracity. Information flow is often instantaneous, so the time available for evaluation and reaction is much shorter. Traditionally, diplomacy is associated with careful deliberation and measured responses. But now ‘Twitter diplomacy’ is its very antithesis. Who gets in his word first is sometimes more important than conveying a carefully nuanced position. So how are foreign policy-makers and diplomats adjusting to the new and vastly transformed environment?

Diplomacy has always managed to adapt itself to technological change. The introduction of the telegraph had led British statesman Lord Palmerston to proclaim the end of diplomacy. That was decidedly premature.

According to studies conducted at the Diplo Foundation based in Switzerland, data and diplomacy are inter-connected in three ways: One, data can be a tool in diplomacy. It can improve both foreign policy formulation and execution through much better techniques of information gathering, diplomatic reporting, negotiation, communication, public diplomacy and consular services delivery.

Two, data diplomacy entails dealing with data governance as an item on the international agenda. This may include the regulation of cross-border flow of data, the privacy of such data and dealing with the challenge of cyber security; and three, data in all its dimensions is creating an altered geopolitical space, where power equations are being influenced by the capacity of countries to gather, store and deploy data.

Data as a tool in diplomacy can have several beneficial spin-offs but this requires cross-disciplinary approaches. Diplomats must acquire familiarity with data science, while data scientists must acquire familiarity with diplomacy. The use of digital analytical tools requires the digitalisation of the vast archives and subject files in the Foreign Ministry. It would be of immense value if all treaties, agreements, MoUs were digitised and stored in a manner allowing easy access. Similarly, all political declarations and joint statements between India and other countries could offer rich material to trace the trajectory of India’s ties with various countries and evaluate outcomes and locate shortcomings. Digitised data can enable text mining using different key words enabling better analysis.

The ability to access legacy data and draw lessons therefrom makes for better prepared and better informed diplomats. This is critical to success in diplomatic negotiations.

Data governance has become a major item on the international agenda. India is engaged in multilateral negotiations on a number of issues related to the digital economy, including the handling of data. These include the cross-border flow of data generated within national boundaries, the privacy of such cross-border flows, e-commerce and the entire field of cyber security.

The Internet has created an inter-connected and networked global economy which is increasingly a digital economy. There is still no truly multilateral management of the Internet. There is lopsided ownership and control over digital infrastructure through which data flows take place. Financial flows take place through digital networks which are also under the control of a handful of countries. We have seen how Russia has been debarred from the SWIFT payment system and literally unplugged from global economy.

The global digital economy is dominated by high-tech platforms like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Mega, which are US multinationals and operate largely outside national jurisdictions and multilateral governance. This will be the major challenge for data diplomacy.

The world of Big Data has transformed the geopolitical and geo-economic environment. The distribution of political and economic power is undergoing a major shift. Countries that are able to accumulate data, irrespective of where such data is generated; countries which have the capacity to use the data thus acquired to deliver useful knowledge, to spur innovation and out-compete rivals will be the front-ranking powers of tomorrow.

Data by itself means nothing unless human agency provides a context to give it meaning and interprets it using the existing pool of knowledge. Data may expose co-relations among phenomena, but co-relation does not always suggest causation. It is still the human mind which must make the judgement call. It is for this reason that investment in human resources through high quality of education remains the best assurance of future success. It is a lesson that India needs to learn and apply before it is too late.

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