Delhi verdict reshapes political equations

The verdict of the Delhi Assembly elections has implications not only for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) but also for the INDIA bloc and the role of freebies in electoral politics. The elections saw the AAP, the BJP and the Congress compete with one another over offering monetary rewards, subsidised utilities and free public transport for different segments of society.

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Such strategies being resorted to by the parties underscore the debate between the transient effectiveness of monetary incentives and programmatic politics.

In search of electoral dividends, parties of all hues, when in power, have been shying away from long-term investment of public resources in such primary sectors as education, health, infrastructure, housing and employment generation, which is far more effective in addressing the issues of poverty and deprivation.

Worse, these populist schemes are often personalised as 'guarantees' in the name of the party leader, promoting person-centred leadership, much to the detriment of intra-party democracy. Also, such tall promises are made knowingly, even when the economy of the state concerned is in a precarious condition, which is often the case.

The election verdict raises questions about the AAP's future. While one electoral defeat, especially when fighting a two-term incumbency, does not mean the demise of a party, it is obvious that the people's belief in AAP's promise of alternative politics is over. The party, which emanated from the Anna Hazare movement, initially contested elections on the promise of fighting corruption in high places, ending VIP culture and bringing the government nearer to the people.

However, over time, it has degenerated into just another political party, having all the vices afflicting other parties.

The AAP leadership has been facing allegations of corruption to generate electoral funds, doing away with intra-party democracy, promoting sycophancy and personal loyalty and adopting the lavish lifestyle of the average political leadership of India. All this has led to a disillusionment among the middle class with the AAP, especially with Kejriwal, who dominated the party.

The results show that the AAP has even suffered a decline in the support of lower classes living in underdeveloped colonies and slums despite having provided lots of benefits to them. This can be attributed to the politics of patronage and clientelism that the party promoted. With the top AAP leaders facing serious corruption charges and being restrained by the judiciary, the beneficiaries of AAP's schemes shifted their loyalties to the BJP, which has promised even larger 'benefits' to them.

The Delhi elections also raise questions about the future of the INDIA bloc in view of the fact that some Samajwadi Party and Trinamool Congress leaders openly campaigned for AAP candidates and not for Congress nominees. Additionally, the Congress and the AAP contested the poll separately, with the leaders of the two parties levelling allegations against each other.

It is obvious from the results that if the AAP and Congress had fought as allies, it would have certainly helped the AAP win a few more seats, including some of its top leaders.

The impression is that the Congress and the BJP are on the same page as far as the agenda of decimating the AAP is concerned. The AAP's decline means a gain for the Congress in Punjab and Delhi. And, for the BJP, it means doing away with a competitive party which not only aims to corner the lower and lower middle class social support base but also plays the softer version of Hindutva politics.

The results also show the importance of the Congress. Despite its decline, apart from the BJP, the Congress is still the only other 'polity-wide' party. This as an important factor in any coalition arrangement against the formidable BJP. It was eveident during the Jharkhand Assembly elections.

It would be fair for the AAP to argue that the unique administrative structure of Delhi came in its way of effectively running the state despite enjoying the popular mandate in the past. A multitude of authorities causes jurisdictional issues and complicates policy formulation, coordination and implementation, especially since the AAP and the BJP were at loggerheads with each other.

The responsibility for development work and service delivery overlaps between various government units, creating difficulty in fixing accountability in the eyes of citizens. The contentious role of the centrally appointed lieutenant-governors over the period was another formidable factor that came in the way of governance.

After the Delhi defeat, Punjab is the only state where the AAP is in power now. Given its massive majority in the Assembly, there is no apparent threat to the state government, though some disgruntled leaders would be incentivised to leave the party.

However, the fact that the party has come to power in the state on the promise of replicating the 'Delhi model' may cause worries about its future. As in Delhi, the party has failed to fulfil its poll promises in Punjab, too. Whether it is drugs or the sand mafia, organised criminal syndicates or corrupt officials, they all have survived, if not thrived. While the party has been unable to transfer money promised to women, the subsidies on electricity and other public utilities have increased the indebtedness of the state.

The party state leadership should be alert about a bleak electoral future if it does not take immediate corrective action. The apprehension that the Delhi-based AAP leadership would interfere more in state government affairs may be misplaced as the autonomy of the state unit of the party is likely to increase. If attempted so by a desperate high command, it would be disastrous for the AAP, as regionalism is a strong factor in the identity politics of Punjab.

The decline of the Akali Dal, as visible in its dismal electoral performance, rising factionalism and leadership crisis, has facilitated the rise of radical Sikh politics in the state that has a troubled past. This was witnessed in the 2017 Assembly elections when many people went with the AAP.

The BJP, which received 18 per cent of the vote in Punjab in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and was runner-up in three constituencies, would be seeking more opportunities to counter-mobilise the radical elements amongst Hindus. The Congress is in a good place, having a decent support base among Hindus and Sikhs. So, AAP's decline would mean an advantage to the Congress and the BJP in the border state.

Views are personal